It's the last week before the Australian Open main draw finally kicks off. Qualifiers are already starting today, but we stay in Adelaide to preview the women's first round match between Vitalia Diatchenko and Maria Sakkari. Our outright pick Sofia Kenin is off to a good start as she cruised past Viktorija Golubic 6-0 6-4. She now has a day off before taking on fellow countrywoman Danielle Rose Collins on Wednesday.
Diatchenko replacing Bertens
On day one, the third "quarter of death" became a bit more clear. Angie Kerber looked really strong in her win against Qiang Wang and so did Dayana Yastremska. I'm already looking forward to the second round match between the German and the Ukrainian. Donna Vekic defeated her nemesis Anastasija Sevastova for the first time in six tries and now awaits the winner of the following match between Diatchenko and Sakkari. Right, in yesterday's preview, it was still Kiki Bertens facing Sakkari, but the Dutch pulled out of the tournament late.
Lucky Loser Diatchenko is replacing her in the draw, but I'm not sure if she can also match Bertens' ability in hot conditions. It will be 30+ degrees again and this should be a big advantage for Sakkari. The Greek is looking for her first win of the season as she lost to Naomi Osaka in Brisbane. As mentioned yesterday, Osaka has really been on a roll on serve last week and also served 16 aces against Sakkari, who still kept the match close, only losing 2-6 7-6 3-6.
Heat favoring the Greek
Regardless, the world #23 will not want to enter the Australian Open without a match win. She loves to compete in the heat and in this regard is the complete opposite to Diatchenko. The Russian did have a lot of success last year as she won six titles on the ITF tour as well as the WTA 125k event in Taipei in November. However, five of these seven tournament wins have come indoors. Over the last two years, she's playing (and winning) more matches indoors than outdoors. A stat I might not have come across like that before.
So even though Diatchenko is coming off her most successful year on tour, there is this discrepancy between indoor and outdoor matches. In qualifying, she lost 1-6 4-6 to Yulia Putintseva after only just beating 15-year-old Charlotte Kempenaers-Pocz 7-6 6-3. Against a fighter like Maria Sakkari, I don't see her keeping up. Rather do I see another match like the one against Putintseva.
Sakkari will try to extend rallies with her great defensive skills, but Sakkattack also improved her offensive play as she tries to live up to her (Instagram) name. Summarizing, I think that the Greek is out of Diatchenko's league in hot outdoor conditions and therefore, I'm betting her to cover the -1.5 sets handicap.
