Week 1 is in the books and it was Jessica Pegula who put up great performances making us money. The American played some amazing tennis in Auckland and only lost to Serena Williams in the final. This week, it's the men's turn in New Zealand's biggest city while all other main tour events take place in Australia. Besides the WTA tournament in Hobart, there will be a joint event in Adelaide and I will preview the women's draw.
Barty looking to make amends
While Hobart falls under the International category, most top players are in for one last heat check before the Australian Open at the Premier event in Adelaide. World #1 Ashleigh Barty leads the way as she's trying to get a few more matches under her belt after a disappointing loss against Brady in Brisbane. Only the #1 and #2 seeds get a bye here in Adelaide, so Barty and Simona Halep will start in round two. There, the Australian will face either Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova or Anett Kontaveit. Both could represent a tricky task.
In the other eighth, Angelique Kerber was scheduled to play Sloane Stephens, but after Petra Kvitova pulled out of the tournament, Kerber got relocated and took the Czech's spot as a seed in the third quarter. Marketa Vondrousova is the other seed in the first quarter. She's coming back from injury and had her last match in July. I neither see her nor Stephens, Rodionova or Maria going far here. Bookies are probably thinking the same and incorporated Ash Barty's draw in her outright number. So I'll just stay away from that quarter.
The second quarter has Belinda Bencic and Sofia Kenin as seeded players and I'm expecting big things from the young American this year. She's one of the most consistent players on tour and has some room to improve at Grand Slams. Last year, she didn't have the favor of being seeded at the Australian Open and therefore lost to Simona Halep in round two. The week before, she won the tournament in Hobart, so she does have some points to defend.
Kenin plays Viktorija Golubic first and then awaits the winner of Danielle Collins and Aliaksandra Sasnovich, who are both inconsistent in their performances. Her projected quarterfinal opponent Bencic faces Daria Kasatkina in round one. I'm curious if the Russian can get back into shape this year. Anyway, she could be a tricky opponent to overcome for the Swiss, who also lost her first round match against Anna Blinkova last week. The winner of Bencic-Kasatkina will face either Julia Goerges or Priscilla Hon. While Goerges could get into trouble with the heat, I don't trust any of the women in the second quarter except for Sofia Kenin.
Plethora of options in third quarter
Kiki Bertens and Angie Kerber are the seeds in the most balanced quarter. So even though she moved up and became a seed, Kerber might have preferred to stay in the first quarter. She will play Qiang Wang first before a potential clash with highly promising Dayana Yastremska awaits in round two. The other eighth is even more well-rounded and I can not decide who gets out of it. Kiki Bertens, Maria Sakkari, Anastasija Sevastova and Donna Vekic can all beat each other (although Vekic is 0-5 against Sevastova). So this time, I'll stay away because of a plethora of options.
The fourth quarter has the two seeds as big favorites again. As mentioned, Simona Halep is already in round two where she faces either Yulia Putintseva or Ajla Tomljanovic. Just like top seed Barty, Halep's odds are a bit deflated due to her first round bye and the relatively easy draw. The only player who could blow her off the court is #6 seed Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian did not have the best start to the season though and lost in round one last week as well. However, Sabalenka has a favorable draw as both her first round opponent Su-Wei Hsieh and possible second round opponent Barbora Strycova were still competing in the doubles final in Brisbane today.
Despite expecting a lot from Sabalenka in the following years, I'm a bit wary of backing her now. Just like Anisimova and most recently Ostapenko, the Belarusian suffered a family tragedy as her father passed away by the end of last year. Obviously that's one of the worst things you can go through in life, so I just hope for her to do well, but won't have a bet in the fourth quarter either as Halep's odds are way too short for my liking.
Steering clear of the top seeds
In my opinion, the books are quite on point with their outright odds right now. If you want to see how bet365 priced them a few hours ago, you can see a screenshot on my Twitter. It's been hilarious. So with the two top seeds being relatively heavy favorites, I try to avoid their quarters. Like I mentioned, I really like Sofia Kenin in this draw. She's playing some consistent tennis and also wants to win a few more matches before the start of the Australian Open as she lost to Naomi Osaka in Brisbane last week. The Japanese put on a show on serve and produced 18 aces, so even taking a set from her was quite remarkable.
If you have bet365 available, they offer the "to win the quarter" market for the tournament in Adelaide. Ashleigh Barty is posing a real threat in a potential semifinal, so I'm willing to take that bet. Anyway, the +1000 odds to win the tournament are slight value to me as well.
