Chelsea Women entertain Bristol City Women at Kingsmeadow on Sunday. I believe the odds market underestimate the prospect of goals in general and a large winning margin in particular.
Chelsea Women
The Blues are making their mark at the pinnacle of women football, finishing top-3 in the FA Women's Super League for five consecutive seasons (claiming the title in 2015 and 2018) and reaching the semi-finals in the UEFA Women's Champions League in 2018 and 2019.
Emma Hayes's team is off to a dazzling start to this season as well, only dropping 4 points on the road and lurking in 3rd spot with one game in hand.
On 27 December 2019 Chelsea signed Australian captain Sam Kerr, by many recognized as one of the very best footballers and attackers in the world.
Attacking midfielder Erin Cuthbert (Scotland Women's Player of the Year and scorer of UEFA Women's Champions League Goal of the Season) acknowledge that the signing of Kerr adds yet another dimension to Chelsea's dynamic attack, talking to Faye Carruthers on Womens Football Weekly (talkSPORT 2).
Statistics
No other team have created more shots or shots on target than Chelsea so far in the Women's Super League this season, Chelsea creating on average 20.0 shots and 8.1 shots on target per game.
No other team have conceded fewer shots than Chelsea so far in the Women's Super League this season, Chelsea conceding on average 7.6 shots per game. Only Arsenal have conceded fewer shots on target than Chelsea so far in the Women's Super League this season, Chelsea conceding on average 3.6 shots on target per game.
Looking at home games specifically, the numbers look just as good. No other team have created more shots or shots on target at home than Chelsea so far in the Women's Super League this season, Chelsea creating on average 19.4 shots and 7.6 shots on target per game.
No other team have conceded fewer shots at home than Chelsea so far in the Women's Super League this season, Chelsea conceding on average 7.6 shots per game. Only Arsenal and Manchester United have conceded fewer shots on target at home than Chelsea so far in the Women's Super League this season, Chelsea conceding on average 3.4 shots on target per game.
Overall, Chelsea produce the best attacking and defensive numbers in the league:
Chelsea have played 5 homes games so far this season, beating Tottenham 1-0 (shots on target 6-2) in the first game of the season. After that another four wins against top half teams: 2-1 against league leaders Arsenal (Chelsea winning shots on target 6-3), 1-0 against Manchester United (Chelsea winning shots on target 5-3), 2-1 against Manchester City (Chelsea winning shots on target 10-4) and 3-1 against Reading (Chelsea winning shots on target 11-5).
Form
Chelsea have mustered 13 points in the last 5 games, scoring 13 goals and conceding 3 goals in the process.
Looking at the last 4 games, Chelsea have created on average 8.8 shots on target per game - even better than Chelsea's average numbers for the season so far. In the same time span, Chelsea have conceded on average 4.5 shots on target per game - slightly above Chelsea's average numbers for the season so far.
Bristol City Women
The Vixens are going through an ominous season, hovering in 11th spot just 3 points above the relegation zone. The underlying numbers look pretty apocalyptic though and Tanya Oxtoby's team might very well be fighting in the FA Women's Championship next season.
Statistics
No other team have created fewer shots or shots on target than Bristol City so far in the Women's Super League this season, Bristol City creating on average 6.8 shots and 2.5 shots on target per game.
No other team have conceded more shots or shots on target than Bristol City so far in the Women's Super League this season, Bristol City conceding on average 21.1 shots and 8.3 shots on target per game.
Looking at away games specifically, the numbers look just as bleak. No other team have created fewer shots or shots on target on the road than Bristol City so far in the Women's Super League this season, Bristol City creating on average 7.4 shots and 3.0 shots on target per game.
No other team have conceded more shots or shots on target on the road than Bristol City so far in the Women's Super League this season, Bristol City conceding on average 23.8 shots and 9.2 shots on target per game.
Overall, Bristol City produce - by some distance - the worst attacking and defensive numbers in the league:
Form
Looking at the last 4 games, Bristol City have created on average 2.2 shots on target per game - even worse than Bristol City's average numbers for the season so far. In the same time span, Bristol City have conceded on average 8.8 shots on target per game - also worse than Bristol City's average numbers for the season so far.
Nevertheless, Bristol City have nicked 4 points in the last 5 games (scoring 5 and conceding 21 goals), which is nothing less than a robbery. It includes beating Manchester United away 0-1 last time out despite Manchester United winning the shots count 26-2 and the shots on target count 9-1. I'm rather confident lightning won't strike the same place twice!
Check out more stats on English football here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Chelsea is the team creating the most shots and shots on target in Women's Super League so far this season, even strengthening the attack in the Hollidays.
Bristol City is the team creating the fewest and conceding the most shots and shots on target in Women's Super League so far this season.
Also; in the reverse fixture in September, Chelsea won 0-4 winning the shots 1-28 and shots on target 0-13.
If there is one game this season with a great potential of a large winning margin - this is the one!
My Betting Tip is Chelsea Women -3 (EH).
Stake at 8.75/10 units.
