San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings: Staying true to their identity

Getting healthy

The first-round bye was very welcome for the 49ers because they got some extra time to get some of their injured players back on the field. One of those is middle linebacker Kwon Alexander who got activated from the IR this week. Combining him with Fred Warner, we get a tandem of linebacker who can cover really well. It means that they should be able to limit Dalvin Cook in the passing game, which was a big part of Vikings offense this year.

It will force Kirk Cousins to throw the ball outside the numbers and test San Francisco corners that are one of the strengths of this defense. On top of that, Adam Thielen is banged up and will probably not be at his 100% for this game. Considering all these things, this one could get ugly for Minnesota, but I believe they could run the ball on the Niners a little bit. This defense did look good but allowed 100y rushing to opposing teams in 12 out of 16 games. Considering the way Vikings bullied Saints on the ground last week, I wouldn't write off the possibility of that happening again.

Repeating rushing performance

Speaking off that game last week, Saints are going to be haunted by these Vikings in their nightmares. First, they stole that win from them in playoffs two years ago. And now they upset them as a 7 point underdog in the Superdome. It was a well-prepared game by Mike Zimmer and his coaching staff. They managed to put a lot of pressure on Drew Brees with a 4-man pass rush. Their rushing attack was not very productive with sub 4 yards per carry. But they were committed to their running game, handing the rock to Dalvin Cook 28 times and staying true to their identity is probably what got them the win in the end.

I expect a lot of the same from them today. They need to get their running game going and take the game out of Kirk Cousins' hands. As I already mentioned, Thielen is injured and will play with some extra padding on his ankle. But he will still have a big role in his game. They love to move him around the formation and try to match him up against the weakest link in the opposing defense. That is crucial against a defense like the Niners' that have an elite corner like Richard Sherman that is capable of locking down one side of the defense.

49ers vs Vikings best bet

Looking at the traditional markets, the lines look pretty sharp, as expected for this stage of the NFL season. San Francisco deserves to be a substantial favorite in this one. They have a great team that showed very little weaknesses throughout the season and they match up well against this Minnesota team. But, we can find some value in my beloved player props markets.

Minnesota will look to establish their running game. I believe there is no doubt about it. Even though Cook was averaging only 3.4 yards per carry, they were feeding him throughout the game and I expect something similar today. He might even have more success vs this defense, considering that 12 out of 16 stat that I mentioned above. I believe Dalvin Cook is getting more than 17 rushing attempts in this game.