WTA Auckland - Powerful Pegula capable of keeping it close

Yesterday's bet did not go according to plan (yet) as Philipp Kohlschreiber won the first set against Steve Johnson. It was a serve-heavy set and none of the two were able to create a break chance. That changed in set two when Johnson had two of them in the first service game, but Kohlschreiber was able to save both of them. At 6-7 2-2, the match was interrupted due to a light drizzle and will be resumed today. That being said, the motivational angle is now gone as Kohlschreiber won't make it to Auckland in time. If anything, the German will be even more motivated now to get a match or two more under his belt before the Australian Open. But let's just see how it will pan out.

Americans in Auckland

For today's pick, we move back to the WTA event in Auckland where top seed Serena Williams takes on up-and-coming Amanda Anisimova who is seeded third. It will be the first meeting between the two Americans and depending on how Anisimova's career is going to proceed, it might be one to remember. Anyway, it's always exciting when one of the greatest takes on a gifted youngster and you shouldn't miss out on the clash between the 38- and the 18-year-old.

In the other semifinal, their compatriot Jessica Pegula faces #5 seed Caroline Wozniacki. The 29-year-old Dane has announced that she'll end her career after this year's Australian Open, so Auckland is her penultimate tournament. Wozniacki was diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis by the end of 2018, but didn't lose her fighting spirit because of it. She reached the final in Charleston as well as the semifinal in Beijing last year and is ready for one last bang during the Australian summer.

Opposing the Oddsmakers

Both Wozniacki and Pegula have convinced so far in New Zealand. The Dane dropped a set in her second round match against Lauren Davis, but yesterday's 6-1 6-4 win against defending champion Julia Goerges was massive.

Jessica Pegula didn't come across such a big name yet, but her overall performance is formidable. She only dropped 11 service games in her first three matches. The quick courts in Auckland really suit her and the fact that she "only" beat CiCi Bellis who comes back from injury, Tamara Zidansek who's a clay court specialist and Alizé Cornet who had to retire injured does not diminish her performances. The American is getting more than 60% of her first serves into play and wins an impressive 77% of them here in Auckland.

According to weather forecasts, it won't be too windy today which should not be to Pegula's disadvantage as her powerful groundstrokes are not as affected with less wind involved. The bookmakers however are making Wozniacki a heavy favorite. Betting the Dane to win would only make you 30 cents for 1 dollar staked.

In my opinion, the value is with the ascending American here. Even if she won't make it to the final, the handicap is set at 4.5 games with Wozniacki still being favored to cover it. That's at least a game too high for me, even with Wozniacki being on top of her game. While she is doing great so far this week, rheumatoid arthritis is a disease which often occurs in batches. So after all, you never know in which condition she'll wake up. This pick does not rely on the Dane to become sick though and I sure hope she will make another final in Auckland or Melbourne. Anyway, I do like Pegula's chances to keep this one close.