No bye week
Patriots talked about how important is to get that first-round bye. They were aware that their game is not flawless going into the playoffs and that they would really need that extra week of rest to tweak few things and get some of the guys some time to heal their injuries. But then some incredible happened. 3-12 Miami Dolphins came to town and defeated the Patriots as a double-digit underdog. It took away the bye week from the Patriots, that are now forced to play the Titans right away.
Julian Edelman was among those players that really needed that extra week of rest. He is dealing with both his shoulder and a knee injury but is expected to play through it. A couple of defensive starters like Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, and Jamie Collins were also dealing with some injury issues throughout the week of practice and are all considered questionable. Depth of that secondary was a strength of this defense and we've seen some decline when one of those players were missing. For example in week 16, when Jones was out and they had problems defending Cole Beasley in the slot, allowing 7 catches/108 yards.
QB change that paid off
Patriots will see some familiar faces in this game. Head coach Mike Vrabel played many years for this organization, before his meteoric rise through the coaching ranks, where he needed only 7 years to become an NFL head coach. And he has done a great job with these Tennessee Titans. Making some tough decision along the way that paid off. Benching Marcus Mariota early in the season was a turning point for this team. Ryan Tannehill played much better and was played a massive role in this playoff run.
Rookie AJ Brown exploded in the second half of the season and became everything that they expected Corey Davis to be, when they selected him 5th overall. Derrick Henry got some All-Pro honors after running for 1500 yards this season and scoring 16 touchdowns. This is a young team with some decent talent to build on in the future.
Patriots vs Titans best bet
Patriots are -4.5, with the total sitting at 44.5 right now. I'm not sure which is the right side when it comes to the spread. Belichick was vulnerable at times against his former pupils. Actually, his former defensive coordinator Flores lead Miami in that week 17 win. But those were mostly regular-season matchups. I don't believe that he can get tricked in the playoffs. But what if it's not up to him? We witnessed Tom Brady's decline this season and he is simply not playing on his GOAT level anymore. Can the Patriots overcome that and still win this game?
I don't know and I don't want to guess. I think that the under is the right play here. Belichick's defensive philosophy is to stop the best opposing player at any cost. He's loading up the box vs Henry and probably sticking Gilmore on AJ Brown. That should slow the Titans down, but Vrabel and his man-to-man scheme should cause some problems for the home side, especially if Brady's accuracy is not there.
