Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets: Securing home field advantage

No.1 seed

There was some uncertainty about Lamar Jackson's status for this game, after getting injured in their previous game in Buffalo. Many people are saying that his playing style is not sustainable in the NFL league. We've seen many dual-threat QB's that were exposing themselves to brutal hits when they were running the ball, but he actually got injured inside the pocket, when he connected with Hurst for a TD. Luckily for the Ravens, the injury was not that serious and he is fully expected to play in this game.

Baltimore is in the clear when we talk about winning the AFC North. But with Patriots losing to the Chiefs last week, I'm sure they have their eyes on securing that home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. With one win more than New England and a H2H edge over them in Week 9, they are in great position to get that No.1 seed in the AFC:

Best run defense

5-8 New York Jets had a horrible start of the season, but bounced back a little bit, since the return of Sam Darnold. One way or the other, they should stand no chance against one of the main contenders for the Superbowl at the moment. But interestingly enough, they got a couple of things going their way in this game. First of all, they've got the best run defense in the league and it's not even close. They are allowing only 3.0 yards per carry and when you're facing this Ravens offense, stopping the run is the No.1 priority. Their weakness is in the passing game. Greg Williams' scheme is very aggressive and often leaves the corners to play on the island. They don't have the guys that could execute that on a high enough level, but throwing the ball outside the number is not exactly Lamar's forte anyway.

Their injury report right now is almost as long as a high school essay. There is a bunch of important players on there such as Jamal Adams and Brain Poole, probably their two best secondary players this season. Ryan Griffin who developed nice chemistry with Darnold over the last couple of weeks and became an important piece in the offense. Chube Edoga, who replaced Kelvin Beachum, meaning that they'll be forced to go further down their depth chart to find someone to protect Darnold's blind side.

Ravens vs Jets best bet

And that will definitely affect their success on offense. They will be forced to help the tackles in pass protection with tight ends and running backs, releasing fewer players into routes. While also missing two of their best receivers TE Ryan Griffin and WR Demaryius Thomas. I also think that Baltimore will not be able to drop 40 on these Jets as they did against some other opponents recently. Jets are built to stop that running game, which could eventually force Baltimore to trade a couple of touchdowns for field goals and keep the total under 45.

Related to that stingy run defense, I'm also leaning towards the under 60.5 rushing yards for Mark Ingram, who is splitting the carries with Gus Edwards lately. And with man defense across the board, Marquise Brown might be worth a look on the over. He is very elusive with the ball in his hands, so he shouldn't need too many receptions to beat this low line.