ITF W100 Dubai - Tough task for Tig

Preseason in Dubai

An often overlooked fact in tennis is that December doesn't mean holiday for players at all. It's probably the month where they work the hardest to get in shape for the new season. A very popular place to train is in Dubai. It's still warm over there, but not as hot as the Australian summer, so the conditions are perfect. For many years, there has also been a high quality women's ITF tournament taking place in between seasons in the biggest city of the United Arab Emirates.

In 2016, the event got upgraded from 75k to 100k in prize money. The winners since then were Hsieh Su-Wei, Belinda Bencic and Peng Shuai. This week, Kiki Mladenovic and Viktoria Kuzmova, last year's runner-up, are the two top seeds. German Tatjana Maria is another seeded player and I will preview her first round match against Patricia Maria Tig from Romania.

The ups and downs of Tig

Both Marias had a rather disappointing end of the 2019 season. Tig's season as a whole can be described as incredible though. After health issues in 2017 and having a baby in 2018, she came back on tour this April. The nine 15k events she played in Cancun, Mexico, showcase her progress perfectly. The Romanian had to retire in 4 of her first 6 tournaments after coming back, just to turn things up in June where she went to the final in three straight weeks and won the title twice. Clearly, 15k events are not her level of competition when healthy.

Flying in from Mexico to London, she lost in three tight sets to Paula Badosa in the first round of Wimbledon qualifying. After that, she reached the final in the WTA 250 event at home in Bucharest and won the WTA 125 event in Karlsruhe, Germany, proving she's a top 150 player at least.

However, the end of 2019 must have felt like a relapse into old times for the Romanian. In all of her last three tournaments, she went out in the first round. After getting crushed 4-6 1-6 by Martina Trevisan and 4-6 2-6 by Katherine Fahey, she even had to retire against Mayo Hibi the last time around. I'm not sure if she picked up some sort of injury again, but it's clear to see that Tig is not on top of her game right now.

Tricky Style

Today's opponent, Tatjana Maria, is one of the more consistent players in the women's game. Just like Tig, she's already a mother. After having her first baby in 2013, she came back in 2014 and has been a consistent member of the top 150 since then. Exactly two and a half years ago, on June 11th 2017, she cracked the top 100 and never dropped out of it ever since.

Maria has a really tricky style. She almost exclusively plays with slice on her backhand and, just like Monica Niculescu, also operates with the forehand slice regularly. The German always attacks with good length and tries to finish points at the net. Basically, you don't get any rhythm when playing her. A nightmare for out-of-form players like Tig. Although I really like the Romanian's game which has some variety to it as well, I don't think her form is good enough to overcome Maria's style. The German will put Tig under constant pressure, meaning that the Romanian has to come up with a lot of good passing shots - a shot that requires confidence like no other.

I already saw value in the bet365 and Unibet opener, which was set at 1.72. Pinnacle opened their line at 1.56 and that's where I would put it as well. After the latest movement, I really think Tatjana Maria presents value in this matchup.