Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon: Home team have greater potential than indicated by the table alone

Bolton Wanderers host AFC Wimbledon at University of Bolton Stadium on Saturday.

Bolton Wanderers

The Trotters are still rock bottom due to the 12 points deduction from the start of the season. They have 9 points from the last 5 games though and signs of improvement can definitely be seen.

Statistics

No other team have created fewer shots and shots on target than Bolton so far in League One this season, Bolton creating on average 9.27 shots and 2.87 shots on target per game.
No other team have conceded more shots and shots on target than Bolton so far in League One this season, Bolton conceding on average 20.07 shots and 6.73 shots on target per game.

However, there's a large distinction between the first games of the season, where Bolton deployed a U18 squad, and the last couple of games where Keith Hill's improved squad is kicking into gear.
The first 6 games of the season, Bolton created on average 4.80 shots and 0.80 shots on target per game while conceding on average 26.30 shots and 9.70 shots on target per game.
The last 4 games, Bolton have created on average 12.50 shots and 4.75 shots on target per game while conceding on average 17.00 shots and 5.50 shots on target per game.
Quite an improvement, especially considering the last 4 games include nicking 6 points from top half teams Bristol Rovers and Fleetwood.

AFC Wimbledon

The Dons are clinging to spot 19 with 16 points from 18 games.

Statistics

Only Bolton have created fewer shots than Wimbledon so far in League One this season, Wimbledon creating on average 10.17 shots per game. Only 3 teams have created fewer shots on target than Wimbledon so far in League One this season, Wimbledon creating on average 3.28 shots on target per game.

Only 4 teams have conceded more shots than Wimbledon so far in League One this season, Wimbledon conceding on average 14.28 shots per game. Only Bolton and Southend have conceded more shots on target than Wimbledon so far in League One this season, Wimbledon conceding on average 5.72 shots on target per game.

Looking at the last 4 games, Wimbledon have created on average 8.00 shots and 2.25 shots on target per game - the worst attacking numbers in the league right now. In the same time span Wimbledon have conceded 13.50 shots and 5.00 shots on target per game - one of the worst defensive numbers in the league right now.

Check out more League One stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Bolton is actually creating and conceding shots and shots on target close to the league average right now.
Wimbledon is one of the teams creating the fewest and conceding the most shots and shots on target in League One, especially the attacking numbers trending downwards.
My Betting Tip is Bolton Wanderers -0.25 (AH).
Stake at 5/10 units.

Check out more odds on Bolton Wanderers - AFC Wimbledon here!