ITF M15 Heraklion - The rise of Alibek Kachmazov

Talented Russian

Alibek Muratovich Kachmazov is a name not many tennis fans are familiar with yet. The 17-year-old Russian was first put in the spotlight when he received a Wild Card into the main draw of the Kremlin Cup in Moscow this October. It surprised me that the ATP level tournament handed a Wild Card to a complete nobody as in previous years, players like Gabashvili, Kravchuk or Ilkel were invited by the tournament directors. So that aroused my interest and I started following the teenager a bit closer.

Already at junior level, Kachmazov proved his talent. He recorded a career high #44 back in March this year and beat quality opponents such as Alvarez Varona, Mochizuki (junior #1 at the time) or Svrcina. All these wins came on clay, but from the short sequences I was able to watch, hard courts should suit him even better.

Argentinian Clay Courter

In today's quarterfinal of the 15k event in Heraklion, Greece, the young Russian will face Matias Zukas from Argentina who is a pure clay court specialist. Coming into the tournament, he only played one hard court match in 2019. Over the course of his career, 386 of the 408 matches he competed in were played on clay - a mind-boggling percentage of 94.61.

The Argentinian beat Petros Tsitsipas (#1572) and Biagio Gramaticopolo (unranked) in the first two rounds. Even on the unwanted hard courts, these are must-wins for Zukas. In my opinion, Kachmazov is in a different tier already. Jonas Trinker (#782) and Michail Pervolarakis (#462) both didn't manage to take a set off the Russian, who cruised to 6-2 6-3 and 6-4 6-4 victories. Last week, he beat Antoine Bellier (#589) before losing to Yshai Oliel (#432) in three sets. Kachmazov even led with a set and a break against #3 seed Oliel, who eventually got the better of him.

Drifting Odds

When opening the markets on the quarterfinals in Heraklion earlier today, bet365 priced Kachmazov at 1.57. I fully agreed with these odds. Presumably, many bettors didn't hear of the Russian before though and therefore jumped on Zukas to win at underdog odds. The move from 1.57 to 1.80 is too big in my eyes and I think Kachmazov is value at that price. Whatever the result will be in this one, the 17-year-old should be one to watch.