ITF M15 Monastir - Svrcina to benefit from Bergs' slump

After the disappointing finals loss from Clara Burel in Monastir, we stay in Tunisia's coastal city. There will be 15k events for both the men and the women until Christmas. The men's tournament will have an interesting first round match on Tuesday when Czech Dalibor Svrcina takes on #8 seed Zizou Bergs from Belgium.

Early Starters

Both players had decent junior careers. Bergs, 20 years of age, peaked at #12 in the rankings back in 2017 while Svrcina is still competing in junior events. The Czech is three years younger, but already won a junior Grand Slam in doubles, partnering compatriot Jonas Forejtek at this year's Australian Open. In singles, he already beat his partner, who's the current junior #2, twice. His 3-0 record (all on hard courts) against British top talent Jack Draper is even more remarkable. Svrcina had a career high ranking of #8 in juniors and is now slowly adapting to the pro tour. The 17-year-old didn't have any major results thus far, however he did beat Sekou Bangoura earlier this year in Prague.

Zizou Bergs on the contrary already won three ITF pro events, Antalya and Wisla in 2018 as well as Doha this year. I had high hopes for the Belgian as he also beat quality opponents in Coppejans, Mager, Kuzmanov, Heller and Vrbensky en route to his titles. Later in 2018, he also took Felix Auger-Aliassime to a third set tiebreak at home in Antwerp. Since then, bookies took notice of him and it was impossible to find value on the young Belgian.

Massive Slump

Maybe the pressure of going into matches as a big favorite got to him, anyway, he's really been struggling in 2019. At first I was certain it was just the usual little backdrop these young guns have to go through, but his results got worse and worse.

Since July, Bergs only managed to win two matches in a row once (on clay against Dessein and Broom). He lost to opponents such as Vitaliy Sachko, Dane Sweeny, Gergely Madarasz, Julius Tverijonas, Adrian Obert, Benjamin Dhoe, Lucas Bouquet or Georgii Kravchenko. His odds in these matches: 1.07, 1.03, 1.24, 1.11, 1.21, 1.07, 1.07 and 1.34. The loss against Sachko came in March, the seven others all happened between June and October. Safe to say the Belgian is overrated by the books at this point.

Opposing the Odds

Dalibor Svrcina only played one ITF pro event since reaching the last 16 at the boys' US Open. He blew a 6-2 4-1 lead against Illya Beloborodko in Milovice. Both Beloborodko and Dominic Stephan Stricker, who he lost to at the US Open, are decent prospects, so these losses are bearable.

Even though Svrcina didn't play much this fall, I have to put some trust in him in this matchup. We have a rising star trying to prove himself on the pro tour against a player who wants 2019 to end rather sooner than later. This match is really open in my opinion and therefore, I will go for the big odds offered on the Czech.