Challenger Maia - Close call on indoor clay?

Innovative Indoor Clay Challenger

The ATP World Tour Finals are over and we are heading into the last week of top-tier tennis in 2019. There are two completely new events this week with the Davis Cup Finals in Madrid, Spain and one last Challenger in Maia, Portugal. Both these tournaments are played indoors with the Challenger being a rare indoor clay event. The only other tournament that was played on indoor clay was the now abolished ATP 250 event in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Today's preview will feature the second round match between Czech Zdenek Kolar and Italian Gianluca Mager.

Consistently Inconsistent

Both Kolar and Mager have been competing on the Challenger tour regularly over the last few years. While Mager really took a step forward this year, winning three Challenger events, one on indoor hards and two on clay, the ranking history of Kolar is one of a kind. He has been inside the top 300 for three and a half years straight now, but never made it to the top 200. I can't recall any other player outside the top 200 with such a consistent ranking. It also kinda surprises me as Kolar's game is anything but consistent. He can switch from top 100 level to club level from match to match, or even from set to set.

Until his run to the semifinal in the indoor Challenger in Bratislava, Slovakia, the Czech only managed to get three wins in a row once this year. He only got it done twice in 2018 as well. However, it seems like his game finally clicked. Not only did he achieve his best result since breaking out in two home Challengers in 2016, he also beat quality players in Lestienne, Mager, Majchrzak and Harris before losing the semifinal to Damir Dzumhur in Bratislava two weeks ago.

Close Call

Yesterday, he beat Wild Card Joao Monteiro 6-2 6-2. The Portuguese was struggling with injuries all year, but that would not have hindered Kolar to put up some weird showings in the past. So while I do feel positive about him, I'm still not 100% convinced of the Czech's newly found consistency.

Kolar and Mager are of the same height and their style is pretty similar as well. Both try to dominate rallies off a strong first serve with the Czech still being a bit more hit and miss. As mentioned above, they already faced each other two weeks ago. There haven't been any breaks between the two until Mager cracked to scoreboard pressure at 6-7 4-5. Only two service games went to deuce and I expect more of the same today.

While Kolar's form is superior, Mager will still be able to get some free points off his good first serve. I also think that Kolar's game is still error-prone on clay, so I don't see him running away with it here. However I do expect another close match between the two and will therefore have a bet on over 21.5 games to be played in today's second round match.