Bolton Wanderers - Milton Keynes Dons: Home team kicking into gear

Bolton Wanderers host Milton Keynes Dons at the University of Bolton Stadium on Saturday. I find the home team underrated in the current market.

Bolton Wanderers

The already troubled North West England club reached a new low after Ken Anderson took over in 2017. After a lot of friction between the new owner and the fans, the players and financial creditors, the club went into administration in May 2019. On 28 August the club was evenyually sold, avoiding liquidation and expulsion from the EFL. Nevertheless, Bolton was punished with a 12 points deduction in the current League One season.

Bolton started the season with basicly the U18 squad. But following the resolved ownership issues, Keith Hill was appointed new manager on 31 August and he strengthened the squad before the transfer deadline on 2 September. The last-minute signings included:
Josh Emmanuel, 22-year-old defender with several seasons in the Championship and League One.
Adam Chicksen, 28-year-old defender with several seasons in the Championship and League One.
Ali Crawford, 28-year-old midfielder with several seasons in the Scottish Premiership.
Thibaud Verlinden, 20-year-old midfielder with experience from the Championship and Premier League 2.
Daryl Murphy, 36-year-old forward. Played the last couple of seasons in the Championship and also featured regularly in the Irish national team until 2018.
Chris O'Grady, 33-year-old forward with several seasons in the Championship.

So, for the first 6 games of the season Bolton deployed a U18 squad in League One. And from the start of September Bolton can call on a completely different team.

Statistics

The Trotters display a rather terrible record so far this season.
No other team has created fewer shots and shots on target than Bolton so far in League One this season, and no other team has conceded more shots and shots on target than Bolton so far in League One this season.

However, there's a large distinction between the first games of the season, where Bolton deployed a U18 squad, and the last couple of games where Keith Hill's improved squad is kicking into gear.
The first 6 games of the season, Bolton created on average 4.8 shots and 0.8 shots on target per game while conceding on average 26.3 shots and 9.7 shots on target per game.
The 7 games after that, Bolton created on average 11.4 shots and 4.0 shots on target per game while conceding on average 14.7 shots and 3.9 shots on target per game.
The last 4 games, Bolton have created on average 12.0 shots and 4.5 shots on target per game while conceding on average 13.5 shots and 3.3 shots on target per game; which is also slightly better than the league average so far this season.
Quite an improvement, especially considering the last 4 games include nicking 7 points from top half teams Blackpool, Bristol Rovers and Fleetwood.

Shots on target average, Bolton Wanderers (League One average as grey lines).

Milton Keynes Dons

The Dons are off to a troubling and ominous start to the season, abiding at spot 21 with 13 points from 16 games.

Statistics

Looking at the season so far, only Bolton have created fewer shots and shots on target than MK Dons in League One, MK Dons creating on average 10.19 shots and 2.81 shoys on target per game. Only Bolton have conceded more shots than MK Dons so far in League One this season, MK Dons conceding on average 17.13 shots per game. Only 3 teams have conceded more shots on target than MK Dons so far in League One this season, MK Dons conceding on average 5.19 shots on target per game.

The trend is even more worrying. The last 4 games, MK Dons have created on average 7.0 shots and 1.5 shots on target per game; which is by some distance the worst numbers in the league. The last 4 games, MK Dons have conceded on average 17.5 shots and 4.3 shots on target per game; among the worst numbers in the league.

Check out more League One stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Bolton Wanderers are still rock bottom in the table due to a 12 points deduction. However, the performance trend is positive and the last couple of games Bolton have been performing better than the league average.
MK Dons is one of the teams creating the fewest and conceding the most shots and shots on target in League One, the performance even deteriorating as of late.
My Betting Tip is Bolton Wanderers.
Stake at 7.5/10 units.

Check out more odds on Bolton Wanderers - Milton Keynes Dons here!