Arsenal travel to East Midlands on Saturday evening to face Leicester City at the King Power Stadium. I believe the home team is slightly underrated in the current market and anticipate the odds for the home win to drop slowly during the week.
Leicester
The Foxes are off to a strong start to the season. After 11 games Brendan Rodgers' team has hived 23 points while scoring 27 goals and conceding 8; earning them a 3:rd place in the league table for now.
Even though the goal scoring ratio isn't sustainable over time, the foundations look rock solid.
Squad status
The only absentee, as I write, is midfielder Matty James. He made a modest 13 appearances last season and has missed this season so far due to an Achilles problem; his unavailability will have a negligible impact on the game on Saturday.
Form
Leicester has amassed 12 points from the last 5 Premier League games, only dropping points away to high flying Liverpool.
In the 3 most recent home games Leicester has collected 9 points while scoring 9 goals and conceding 2 goals (against Tottenham, Newcastle and Burnley).
Arsenal
The Gunners are off to a fine but turbid start to the season residing at 5:th place with 17 points from 11 games, Unai Emery's men scoring 16 goals and conceding 15 so far.
Squad status
Young forward Reiss Nelson will most probably miss the game due to a recent injury to his knee; he's scarcely used and the impact on the game is minimal.
More important then is the fact that Arsenal captain Granit Xhaka is expected to miss out once again after the ugly fallout with the club's supporters.
Form
Arsenal has gathered 6 points from the last 5 Premier League games.
In the 3 most recent away games Arsenal has obtained a meagre 2 points while scoring 5 goals and conceding 7 goals (against Watford, Manchester United and Sheffield United).
Analysis
Leicester produce some really strong numbers when facing the top teams in the Premier League. Last season, only Manchester City and Liverpool presented a better shots on target difference against the Top 6 teams, Leicester even creating more shots on targets than they concede at the King Power Stadium. Also, only 4 teams conceded fewer shots on target at home than Leicester when facing teams from the top half of the table.
So far this season, only 6 teams have created more shots on target than Leicester, the Foxes creating on average 4.55 shots on target per game.
Only 3 teams have conceded fewer shots on target than Leicester so far this season, Leicester conceding on average 3.55 shots on target per game.
Arsenal on the other hand produce rather terrible numbers when facing the top teams in the Premier League on the road. Last season, even relegated Huddersfield displayed a better shots on target difference when facing top half teams away from home!
So far this season, only 5 teams have created more shots on target than Arsenal, the Gunners creating on average 4.73 shots on target per game.
However, only 5 teams have conceded more shots on target than Arsenal so far this season, Arsenal conceding on average 5.18 shots on target per game.
Furthermore, Leicester will have a full week of preparations for this very game. Arsenal travel to Portugal to face Guimaraes in the Europa League on Wednesday - a game not to be taken lightly; Arsenal won the reverse game at home in October by the finest of margins and only thanks to two late goals by Pepe.
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Leicester thrive against top teams in the Premier League, especially at home.
Arsenal most often find is very hard on the road against top teams in the Premier League.
Also, Leicester has won the last two Premier League games against Arsenal at King Power Stadium 3-1 and 3-0.
My Betting Tip is Leicester.
Stake at 7.5/10 units.
