Fast courts in final event of the year
As the 2019 tennis season comes to an end, the last ATP Masters 1000 event in Paris is in full swing. All eight third round matches will be played tomorrow and besides the big names, there will be another match taking place which offers a big chance for both Frenchman Jeremy Chardy and Chilean Cristian Garin. A win would mean a maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal for Garin and the first appearance in the last 8 for Chardy since he made the semifinal at Rogers Cup in 2015.
The courts in Paris appear to be lightning-fast, which seems to be an advantage for Chardy at first glance. However, Garin's serve really improved this year and he just beat an even bigger server in John Isner yesterday.
Garin and the big servers
If you're following each article on here, you know that we also bet Garin on the +2.5 games handicap against Reilly Opelka last week. The Chilean lost the match in two tiebreaks, meaning the handicap bet won. He only lost six points on serve during the whole match, including both tiebreaks. As mentioned in the previous article, Garin is able to adapt to the big servers' styles and knows how to tame them with his consistent serve and play from the baseline. Yesterday, he beat Isner for a second time this year. Besides Opelka and Querrey, he already beat Chardy as well in 2019.
The Frenchman leads their head to head 4-1, but three of the five matches have been played in 2017 or prior and Garin clearly improved since then. They split wins this season as Garin beat Chardy in Houston and the Frenchman took revenge in Bastad. Both matches have been played on clay. Looking at their previous matches on hard courts, their numbers are almost identically. Garin even won slightly more points on serve and on return over the last three months.
Games handicap once again
While bookies make Chardy a decent favorite in this matchup, I think Garin stands a chance at least. Chardy's second round win over Daniil Medvedev seems impressive, but the Russian was off his game for the first time in forever. He only converted 1/15 break points and gifted the match to the Frenchman in the end.
With the quick indoor conditions and their ability to hold serve, I expect this to be a close match. Jeremy Chardy has never been a reliable player starting a match as the betting favorite and while I think Garin has a serious shot of winning the match, I really love the +2.5 games handicap indoors. Therefore, I will go for it again, so a loss in two tiebreaks or a close three set match would seal the deal as well.
