Manchester City will host Southampton at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday evening, battling it out for a spot in the EFL Cup Quarter Finals.
Manchester City
Pep Guardiola's squad top pretty much every metric in the domestic competitions. In the Premier League, no other team has created more shots or shots on target than Manchester City so far this season, City creating on average 21.5 shots and 7.90 shots on target per game.
No other team has conceded fewer shots than Manchester City so far in the Premier League this season, City conceding on average 9.00 shots per game. However, no less than 6 teams have conceded fewer shots on target than Manchester City so far in the Premier League this season, City conceding on average 3.80 shots on target per game.
In November, Manchester City embark on a tough run of fixtures that could very well define their season. They trail Liverpool by 6 points in the Premier League and the Champions League title still elude Guardiola's City.
I do think that the EFL Cup game on Tuesday has the lowest priority of the games coming up in the next couple of weeks for City.
In the previous EFL Cup game (against Preston), Manchester City lined up as follows:
Claudio Bravo - Joao Cancelo, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Eric Garcia, Angelino - Phil Foden, Ilkay Gundogan, David Silva - Bernardo Silva, Gabriel Jesus, Raheem Sterling.
At least 5 changes from what would be a typical lineup in the Premier League or in the Champions League.
Leroy Sané, Aymeric Laporte, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Rodrigo will miss the game on Tuesday due to injuries. Fernandinho will serve a one-match ban after a red card. That's five obvious starters in a game of high priority. How much will Guardiola gamble with the fit key players in the EFL Cup?
I do think we will see at least a handful of changes and quite a lot of youth and lack of game time in the line-up on Tuesday evening.
Southampton
The most notable thing about Ralph Hasenhüttl's team right now is probably the 0-9 loss to Leicester. But to all accounts, Southampton isn't THAT bad. They received a red card after 12 minutes and had a terrible day at work for sure.
Overall, Southampton perform pretty decent and on the road even better than so.
Looking at away games specifically so far this season, only 5 teams have created more shots than Southampton in the Premier League, Southampton creating on average 12.40 shots per game. And only 4 teams have created more shots on target on the road than Southampton so far in the Premier League this season, Southampton creating on average 5.00 shots on target per game.
When on the road, only 4 teams have conceded fewer shots than Southampton so far in the Premier League this season, Southampton conceding on average 10.40 shots per game. Only 3 teams have conceded fewer shots on target away from home than Southampton so far in the Premier League this season, Southampton conceding on average 3.20 shots on target per game.
Analytical minds like Experimental 361 and ">Foxpunter testify that Southampton indeed produce some of the best performance and expected goals metrics in the league, especially away from home.
In the previous EFL Cup game (against Portsmouth), Southampton lined up like this:
Alex McCarthy - Cedric Soares, Jan Bednarek, Maya Yoshida, Ryan Bertrand - James Ward-Prowse, Oriol Romeu, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg - Danny Ings, Che Adams, Michael Obafemi.
Pretty much the best possibly line-up.
Ryan Bertrand will be suspended on Tuesday and Cedric Soares might miss the game due to injury.
Odds
Manchester City will face Southampton in the EFL Cup on Tuesday but also in the Premier League on Saturday. The odds for the draw is around +930 for the EFL Cup game and around +1040 for the Premier League game, and the odds for the away win is around +2440 for the EFL Cup game and around +2740 for the Premier League game. Seems like too small a difference to me considering the vast gulf in importance between the games.
The odds for the Premier League game seem fair to me. But I do think there's a greater difference in probability than the 0.9% difference for the draw and the 0.4% difference for the away win that the odds indicate.
Check out more EFL Cup stats here.
Conclusion & Betting Tips
I do think that Southampton is underrated in the current market and that there's value to be found in opposing a large win for Manchester City.
