Watford - Bournemouth: Value to be found in the cards market

Watford will host Bournemouth at Vicarage Road on Saturday. I believe there's some value to be found in the cards market.

Watford

The Hornets are off to a frustrating start to the season; after 9 games they find themselves rock bottom with a meagre 4 points.

Statistics

Looking at home games in the Premier League last season, no other team conceded more fouls than Watford, the Hertfordshire outfit conceding on average 11.63 fouls per game at Vicarage Road.
So far this season, only 3 teams have conceded more fouls than Watford when playing at home, Watford conceding on average 12.00 fouls per game.

Bournemouth

The Cherries are off to a solid start to the season, occupying 10:th place with 12 points from 9 games.

Statistics

Only 2 teams committed fewer yellow cards on average than Bournemouth on the road last season in the Premier League, Bournemouth committing on average 1.26 yellow cards per game.

No other team committed fewer fouls on average than Bournemouth on the road last season in the Premier League, Bournemouth committing on average 8.00 fouls per game.
So far this season only 3 teams have committed fewer fouls on average than Bournemouth in the Premier League, Bournemouth committing on average 8.92 fouls per game.

Referee

Referee on Saturday is Mike Dean, one of the referees displaying the most cards in the Premier League.
In 2017/2018 only 2 referees displayed more yellow cards on average than Mr. Dean. Last season no other referee picked up the deck of cards more frequently than him, Mr. Dean displayed on average 4.45 yellow cards per game (the home team receiving on average 2.17 yellow cards per game). So far this season, Mr. Dean has shown 4.38 yellow cards per game on average (the home team receiving on average 2.25 yellow cards per game).

Check out more Premier League stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Watford have a rather rough style of play, possibly even more conspicuous when facing a non-aggressive opponent in Bournemouth.
The referee is one of the referees displaying the most cards in the Premier League.
Also, in the five most recent games between the two teams, Watford have received on average 3,6 cards per game (4,5 cards per game when at Vicarage Road).
My Betting Tip is Watford Over 2.5 Cards.
Stake at 5/10 units.

Check out more odds on Watford - Bournemouth here!