New York Jets vs New England Patriots: MNF showdown at Meadowlands

Patched up O-line

From what we've seen so far this season, Jets probably have the biggest dropoff between their starting QB and his backups. When Sam Darnold was out with mononucleosis, this offense was one of the most impotent units in the league. They were scoring under 8 points per game in that period while totaling under 200 yards per game as well. With Darnold back in the lineup vs the Cowboys last week, they scored more points than in previous three games combined (24 to 23) and pretty much doubled the yardage, comparing to the average in those three previous games.

Luke Falk and Trevor Siemian were unable to run this offense efficiently and use all the weapons that the Jets have at the wide receiver and in the backfield. Stats of Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson are the one that took the biggest hit with Darnold out and revived with his return. Crowder caught 6 for 98 vs Cowboys, while Anderson had 5 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown. They are facing a vaunted Patriots secondary tonight.

The biggest problem that Jets are having right now is their lengthy injury report. Almost half of their team is on there and they are hopeful to get as many players ready for this divisional matchup. The good news is that CJ Mosley could be back after injuring his hamstring Week 1. Getting a playmaker and defensive play-caller like him would be a big boost for Greg Williams' defense. 4 out of their 5 starters on the offensive line is questionable at best. The left side is completely decimated with both Beachum and Osemele being doubtful. Backup left guard Alex Smith was also a mid-week addition to the injury report, which is not a piece of good news, while center Ryan Kalil sat out the last practice before the game. Adam Gase will have to gameplan around this situation and try to get the ball out of Darnold's hands as fast as possible.

Trying too hard against Tom Brady?

On the other side, Patriots took full advantage of their cupcake schedule and are occupying the 1st place in the division. The only team that kinda managed to create some challenges for them were the Bills. Defensively, they were able to expose a couple of things that are bothering Tom Brady and left the blueprint to the other teams on how to do it. The problem is that not many teams have the defensive personnel to execute it. Bills have several corners that are able to play some good man coverage. When we look at the Jets, that might be the area where they're struggling the most. In theory, Trumaine Johnson should be the guy that they'd be comfortable to leave on the island against anybody, but he played well below expectations, since signing that big contract as a free agent. Daryl Roberts on the other side is questionable with an ankle injury.

These two teams played a month ago when New England won at Foxborough 30-14. One area where they really struggled was their rush offense. They averaged only 2.5 yards per carry which is not a coincidence, considering that the Jets are currently 3rd best defense in that segment. It will once again come down to Tom Brady recognizing where the pressure is coming from and punishing Greg Williams for being too aggressive.

Jets vs Patriots best bet

When it comes to traditional markets, I was leaning towards the over in this game. The line is currently at 43.5. In the first game between these two teams, 44 points were scored. I don't see what Jets' defense can do differently to slow Tom Brady down. On the other side, Darnold instead of Falk provides a major boost for the " Gang Green"

Looking at the player props, there are some interesting lines available. With Josh Gordon out with an injury, other receivers should get more targets. If Dorsett is ready to go, he should benefit the most by playing most of the snaps outside and working against Johnson/Roberts. He had 6 catches for 53 yards in the first game vs this defense.

I already mentioned issues that Jets are having on the offensive line. They need to get the ball out of Darnold's hands fast, which means their running backs should be involved in the passing game. Getting the ball out to Le'Veon Bell in the flat and let him do his thing should help the offense find some rhythm and avoid negative plays. He had only 1 catch last week, but he ran 30 routes in that game. It is reasonable to expect that his targets will increase with that many routes run, especially when seeing that he caught 6 for 6 in week 1, with Darnold as a signal-caller vs the Bills.