ATP Basel - Can Chilean Cristian Garin tame big serving Opelka?

Central Europe Indoor Tennis

The 2019 ATP season is heading towards its end. Only two more weeks of regular tournaments and we're in Central Europe this week for the Erste Bank Open in Vienna and the Swiss Indoors in Basel. Both of them are ATP 500 events before the tour heads to Paris for one more Masters 1000 next week. Today, round one continues in Basel, Switzerland and I will preview the matchup between Chilean Cristian Garin and Reilly Opelka from the United States.

First impression: Opelka outstanding

The 6'11'' American is well-known for his big serve and comparisons to compatriot John Isner are legit. Three of his four titles on the Challenger tour as well as his one and only ATP title came on indoor hard courts. Opelka has a career record of 28 wins and 10 losses, making this his best surface to the surprise of no one.

If you look at Cristian Garin's numbers, you would think he is a stereotype South American clay player. He has a record of 246-132 on the red dirt while sitting at 48-35 on hard courts. On indoor hard courts, he is 1-6. Growing up in Chile, it's impossible to avoid clay courts, so it's no surprise he played the majority of his matches on the surface. However, his scheduling changed a lot since he's able to play ATP events regularly and in 2019, only 50% of his matches were played on clay.

Second glance: Garin adaptive

"I love to play on grass and like to play on hard courts" - that quote has to be from Reilly Opelka obviously... But, it is not. These are the words Cristian Garin used after winning his maiden ATP title in Houston. And it's not only empty phrases as you can see by his scheduling. When I visited the ATP tournament in 's-Hertogenbosch earlier this year, I had no expectations from the Chilean. Watching him play, I realized he has much more to his game than the typical clay courter. He beat Caruso and Haase in straight sets before losing to Coric in a third set tiebreak. After that, he lost to Cilic and Rublev. On grass, that's not the end of the world.

Conclusion: Chilean able to tame big servers

Reilly Opelka really disappointed in Stockholm last week. In his first round loss to Stefano Travaglia, he never looked like the winner despite putting up 30 aces. Garin also contributed to his 1-6 record last week by losing to Andreas Seppi. He did look like the winner for the most part of the match though, blowing two match points at 6-3 6-5 40-15. Seppi's experience paid off in the end as the Italian won in two tiebreaks.

Comparing their most recent performances, I do think that Garin is in better form. Opelka has to improve a lot if he wants to beat Garin who is a much better version of Travaglia. The Chilean's ability to pass players at the net might become crucial in this one. Especially his backhand reminds a little bit of Djokovic's. He already beat Opelka this year, although in Roland Garros, 7-6 7-5 7-6. Sam Querrey also fell victim to his run to the title in Houston (6-7 2-6) and John Isner lost (3-6 4-6) to him in Montreal this year. So you can confidently claim that he knows how to handle these big servers.

If Opelka doesn't improve significantly from the baseline, I think he will have a hard time beating Garin. Nevertheless, the books make the big serving American the clear favorite. While his inexperience and bad record on indoor hards might affect Garin, the +2.5 games handicap on offer would also cover a tight loss in two tiebreaks. So I'm taking this one as I don't think Opelka will run away with the win.