Two wins in a row
After the first couple of weeks, it seemed like nothing changed in this division. Chiefs were dominating, Chargers were behind them, while Broncos and the Raiders struggled. But, the last couple of weeks caused a lot of commotion in the AFC West. Broncos and the Raiders won two in the row, while Chiefs and the Chargers "achieved" the complete opposite. Denver first ended their losing streak at the Chargers, winning 20-13 and then managed to add another one over Titans at home 16-0. It might seem that this team is trending upwards at the moment and is in a prime spot to upset the division leader at Mile High Stadium.
But, I'd advise some caution there. They did win two in a row, but against teams that are dealing with a lot of issues at the moment. Chargers weren't able to overcome some of the absences that completely killed their rhythm offensively. While the Titans decided to bench Marcus Mariota after several underwhelming performances when they weren't able to do anything in the passing game. That is why conceding only 13 points in the last two games might not necessarily mean that their defense is that great.
Because that unit definitely has some holes and can get exposed, if you have the weapons to do it. Run defense is mediocre with 4.3 yards per carry allowed, which puts them somewhere in the middle of the pack. They are struggling to put pressure on the opposing quarterbacks and with Bradley Chubb on the IR, I don't see them improving in that area anytime soon. DeMarcus Walker did have two sacks in the last game, but from what I've seen the secondary forced quarterback hold onto that ball for a very long time
Andy Reid figured out?
And that is exactly what the blueprint for beating the Chiefs was lately. Playing physical man coverage across the board. Force Mahomes to hold onto the ball and rush 4 guys up front and put him under the pressure. Lions have done it when they lost a close one in week 4. Colts have done it in an upset two weeks ago. And Texans also did it. But, where I see the problem for Denver is an uneven secondary. You have an elite guy like Chris Harris on one side, but you are working with Davontae Harris on the other side and Will Parks in the slot (Kareem Jackson moved to free safety). Combining that with the inability to rush the passer, I don't believe that they will be able to slow down the Chiefs as other teams did.
I'm more worried about the Chiefs run D, which was once again gashed last week. It's pretty amazing that they changed the defensive coordinator and the scheme from 3-4 to 4-3 and still couldn't improve one bit when it comes to stopping the run.
Chiefs vs Broncos best bet
To be able to run the ball, you need to slow down the opposing offense. I don't think the Broncos can do that tonight. It will force them to open up offensively. But getting into a shootout is not a type of game that they can win against Kansas City.
Looking at the player props, there is some value to be found in certain spots. DeMarcus Robinson to have a 19y or longer reception seems very interesting. Although he was held catch-less last week, he played most snaps among the Chiefs receivers. With the defense playing man coverage, I guess Denver will try to put Chris Harris on Tyreek Hill, which will create a favorable matchup for Robinson against other corners that are nowhere near as good and can easily get beat by him for a long catch.
