Challenger Las Vegas - Newly dad Arevalo too big of a favorite?

Autumn Tennis in Sunny Conditions

While the majority of tennis is played indoors this week, there are still some tournaments held outdoors as well. Today's preview contains a Challenger match in sunny Las Vegas where we still have temperatures close to 30°C (80+°F). American Roy Smith is going to face Marcelo Arevalo from El Salvador in the first match of the day.

Work-Family Balance

It will be Arevalo's 29th birthday in two days and that's not the only thing that's going on in his personal life right now. After getting married to Lucia Kovarcikova earlier in July, he became a dad for the first time in September. Since then, he competed in two Challenger events, in Tiburon and Santo Domingo, losing in round two and one respectively. Apart from playing doubles, he didn't train much the last few weeks as he had to take care of his son as well.

In Santo Domingo, he lost to Victor Estrella Burgos which on the one hand was one more beautiful chapter in the career of the legend from the Dominican Republic. On the other hand, Arevalo should not have lost to him at this stage of their careers. He won all of their previous four matchups and Estrella Burgos didn't even manage to win a set. The Dominican also had his farewell party before their first round match, so he might not have even expected another win. That tells you a lot about Arevalo's current fitness.

Smith's Scoreboard Struggling

Anyway, the Salvadoran didn't get the toughest draw in Las Vegas as Roy Smith is on a losing run as well. The American only won two of his last ten matches. The grind of playing tennis for a living might have gotten to his head in some of these losses as he only started his professional career this year after two years at Baylor University. Apart from a few shockers, most of his losses are close.

I do consider Roy Smith a decent talent. He owns a good lefty serve and has an aggressive game from the baseline. You just don't really know what to expect from him day in day out as his game is still raw and, as described before, he sometimes falls to scoreboard pressure.

Close Match Expected

With the big question mark about Arevalo's fitness, I expect this to be a close match again. Smith should be able to hold his serve comfortably against a so-so moving opponent. The same applies to Arevalo though as his big serve can not be written off. Therefore, I won't bet on Smith to win the match, but I still think he is capable of covering the +3.5 games handicap. During the writeup, the Pinnacle line dropped from 1.92, but you can still get it at 1.83 with bet365.