WTA Luxembourg - Julia Goerges ready to defend her title

From Linz to Luxembourg

After the WTA circuit moved indoors last week with the tournament held in Linz, Austria (and the Tianjin final being played indoors as well), they move on to Luxembourg and Moscow next week. Basically, we have Linz 2.0 in Luxembourg as 21 of the 28 players in the main draw come over from Austria. Joining them will be top seed Elise Mertens, #6 seed Camila Giorgi, Wild Card Katie Volynets, Hometown Hero Mandy Minella as well as Tatjana Maria, Monica Puig and Sorana Cirstea.

Top half containing Linz finalists

Both Linz finalists, Cori Gauff and Jelena Ostapenko, will go for another run in Luxembourg. After losing said final in three sets, Ostapenko will face Gauff's bestie Caty McNally in round one this week. Not an easy draw coming off a finals loss. I'm curious if she can build on her good week and also if Marion Bartoli will stay with her for a bit longer.

The winner of McNally-Ostapenko will probably have to face #1 seed Elise Mertens in round two. The Belgian is still in the hunt for Zhuhai and I expect a good week from her. Nevertheless, her odds to win the tournament are a tad low for me at 5.00 as she doesn't have the easiest draw with either Linz semifinalist Andrea Petkovic or Camila Giorgi waiting in the quarterfinals. While I considered a bet on Giorgi, there are always some injury concerns looming for the Italian who also retired in her first round match in Wuhan three weeks ago.

So I'll look for an outright in the second quarter which has #4 Alison Van Uytvanck and #8 Anna Blinkova as seeded players. Blinkova has to face first-time title winner Cori Gauff in the first round. This might be a letdown spot for the 15-year-old, but I still think Belgian Alison Van Uytvanck has the better draw of the two seeds. After facing a qualifier in round one, either Teichmann or Gasparyan will await in round two. Both of them are struggling to find form late this season, so I don't see Van Uytvanck missing the quarterfinals. The Belgian is a proven indoor specialist, winning 70% of her matches. For three straight years, she won a WTA title on the surface, in Quebec City 2017 as well as in Budapest 2018 and 19. She also won the doubles competition in Luxembourg with her girlfriend Greet Minnen last year. Unibet currently offers her at 21.00 odds, which presents some value. Therefore, Van Uytvanck is my outright pick for the first half.

Goerges leading the way in bottom half

In the bottom half, the seeds are #2 Julia Goerges, #3 Elena Rybakina, #5 Viktoria Kuzmova and #7 Fiona Ferro. Rybakina and Kuzmova are placed in the third quarter. Both of them are talented, hard hitting young players who can go far, but while Rybakina has played a lot of matches recently and is carrying a little injury, Kuzmova has been struggling to get back into shape all summer. Both their second round matches could be tricky with Laura Siegemund waiting for Kuzmova and local Mandy Minella being Rybakina's potential second round opponent. Even if they both get through to the quarterfinal, I don't want to pick a winner in that one.

Looming at the bottom end of the draw is defending champion Julia Goerges. After a disappointing second round loss in Austria, she's ready to make amends. The courts in Linz have been really slow as far as indoor hard courts which didn't help her in the matchup with Petkovic. I expect Luxembourg to be a lot faster, benefitting the hard hitting German. Doi, Cirstea, Parmentier, Bolsova, Pliskova, Puig and Ferro are all a level below Goerges, so I would be shocked if she doesn't make it to the semifinals again.

Potential semifinal opponent Viktoria Kuzmova lost to Goerges in the first round last year. Blinkova, Vekic, Bouchard and Bencic also fell victim to Goerges on her run to the title. Her good memories, her serve and powerful game as well as her kind draw lead me to my second outright pick, Julia Goerges at 7.50 odds.