New England Patriots vs New York Giants: Mission impossible

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Are the Patriots really as untouchable as their record shows, or they just benefited from a very favorable schedule? It's actually a mixture of both in my opinion. They are the defending Superbowl champions, so they are obviously a great team, but they also played opponents with a combined 5-18 record in 2019 regular season. The area where they're struggling the most is the pass protection. The departure of Trent Brown in free agency and injuries to Isaiah Wynn and David Andrews definitely took its toll. Two starting tackles and a center from last season. Dante Scarnecchia is one of the best OL coaches in the business, but he simply doesn't have enough talent to work with at this moment.

Defensively, they are playing really well right now. If the OL is their weakest group at the moment, secondary is the complete opposite. There is a saying in the NFL, that you're secondary is only as good as your 4th corner. In that case, Patriots are the best, with Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones and JC Jackson playing out of their minds. It's true that they didn't face an above-average offense since the opening night. And also I'm not saying that Giants are one of those. But it's a fact that they had it easy so far, while Daniel Jones showed a lot of potential since replacing Eli Manning in week 3.

injuries, injuries...

I'd just love he'd have all of his weapons available, to see what he can do vs this Patriots defensive unit. But unfortunately, that is not going to happen. Aside from Saquan Barkley who sprained his ankle couple of weeks ago, Giants are missing their best two receivers, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram. But, his skill players weren't really excelling at beating their matchups last week vs Vikings' defense and he still managed to complete a bunch of throws into tight coverage.

Last week, they were in a terrible situation with their linebackers. They were missing 3 out of 4 starters (Lorenzo Carter, Tae Davis, and Alec Ogletree). They played a group of guys that had only a handful of snaps prior to that. Luckily, they are getting some of the starters back for this one. Things could turn ugly for them with special teamers in there vs the Patriots, who are putting a lot of pressure on that linebacking position with all the play-action stuff and short passing game.

Patriots vs Giants best bet

Another important factor to consider when betting anything related to this game is the weather. There is a high probability of rain throughout the day and some wind as well, which could have an effect on the passing game. First of all, looking at the traditional spread/total markets, I can't resist the feeling that 17 points are a touch too high here. New England has been beating on some really bad teams lately, which is why this line is inflated. Rain could put both running games in the spotlight, where the Giants were not really that bad this season. Healthy and improved OL is blocking well for their backs, while the defense is allowing 4.4 yards per carry, which is good enough to be in the top half.

Player specials. When a bunch of skill players is out, the most usual thing to do is to bet the over on the "next man up", due to increased workload. I'm not sure that is the right move when talking about Giants receivers. Golden Tate's line has been adjusted already. He's not the player he once was. He is having an extremely challenging matchup vs Jonathan Jones/Jason McCourty in rainy conditions. He caught 3 balls for 13 yards last week. If you want to bet a Giant because of the absences of Engram and Shepard, I'd suggest to look in the direction of Darius Slayton. His role got expanded since Jones became the starter and they have good chemistry from the training camp when they were both working with the backups.

Daniel Jones to get some rushing yards is also an option. He showed that he has some serious wheels for a QB in the last couple of weeks. And this is a good situation to get some yardage on the ground. New England plays a lot of man defense, which creates scenarios like this one: Receivers unable to get open, he gets flushed out of the pocket. Because of the man defense, corners are covering their matchups up the field and don't see him scrambling to the side and trying to get the 1st down with his running.

Matt Lacosse, the tight end of the Patriots is worth a look as well. Izzo looked like a better receiving option last time out. But Lacosse saw 4 targets as well. He also played almost 100% of the snaps. I believe that will happen once again with the issues on the OL, where they need to help their tackles with some chips from tight ends and running backs.

Mike Nugent, the newly acquired kicker struggled mightly in his Pats debut. He missed an extra point and luckily bounced one in off the post. I don't believe that rain and wind will help him with his form, so he's another under option.