Challenger Mouilleron-le-Captif - Redhead Redemption

Fourth Edition of Sinner-Lamasine

In today's Challenger event in Mouilleron-le-Captif, France, compatriot Tristan Lamasine faces one of the biggest talents in men's tennis, Jannik Sinner from Italy. The two already faced each other three times this year. Their first match was indoors in Bergamo, Italy, in February. The rising Sinner won 6-2 6-3 and went on to win his first ever Challenger title that week, beating Roberto Marcora in the final. Both their second and third meeting took place in Lyon, France, on clay. After Sinner beat Lamasine again in qualifying 6-4 6-3, the French received a Lucky Loser spot in the main draw and took revenge, sending the young Italian home 6-0 7-6.

Stereotype Journeyman vs. Top Talent

Tristan Lamasine has established himself as a stereotype Challenger level player. He's 26 years of age and the biggest achievement of his career was a Challenger title in Tampere, Finland, resulting in his top ATP ranking at #181 back in 2015. It should remain his only title at Challenger level. Since then, he's floating between #200 and #400 in the rankings for the most part.

Jannik Sinner turned 18 years old in August this year and already finds himself at #127 of the world. There are no other players born 2001 or later in the top 300 at all. The rising star already showed some very promising performances this year, winning two Challenger and two ITF 25k events as well as taking a set off Stan Wawrinka at the US Open.

Speed Suits Sinner

His powerful and aggressive game from the baseline suits the faster courts very well, so it's no surprise that he's winning a higher percentage of matches on hard courts than on clay. He's 25-15 on outdoor and 16-4 on indoor hard courts throughout his career while recording 36 wins and 26 losses on clay. On the other side, Lamasine's indoor winning percentage is worse than all other surfaces.

That being said, Lamasine's one win came on clay while he was demolished by the rising Sinner in the one match on indoor hard courts. It's clearly evident that the teenager is still struggling on slower courts against grinders that keep getting balls back and extend rallies. On indoor hard courts, that's not really possible though, so I really like getting on the redhead at these odds against players he's already ahead of in terms of strength, serve and shotmaking skills.

Lamasine did have good results last week, when he reached the semifinal of the Challenger event in Orleans, but I don't really expect him to do that well for consecutive weeks. Sinner only lost to Kukushkin in St. Petersburg and Bedene in Metz, both ATP events, so the odds are more a result of their current winning or losing streaks than they reflect their actual abilities. While writing this article, the odds dropped from 1.72 to 1.66, but I think this still presents value.