Indianapolis Colts vs Oakland Raiders: Slower pace favors the under

Worst schedule in the league

Looking at the schedule of the Oakland Raiders, you can't resist asking yourself: "Whose brilliant mind came up with this one?" After hosting the Chiefs in week 2, they won't play at home before November the 3rd, when the Lions are coming to Oakland in week 9. It will be a massive challenge for the Raiders to deal with all the traveling and it has already started. After suffering a loss in Minnesota last week, they went back home to California and then flew again to the east to face the Colts. After that, they are traveling to London before receiving a much-needed bye week.

Speaking of the last week's game in Minnesota, they got stomped by the Vikings. Even though Gunther said he has something special for his former mentor (Mike Zimmer), the teacher got the better of his student this time around. Raiders' defensive coordinator decided to live by the sword when it comes to pass defense and so far he died by the sword. They were playing "press man" very aggressively so far, but unfortunately, their corners were getting beat by the Chiefs' and Vikings' receivers.

But even more concerning was how bad their run defense looked. There was no physicality from their front seven that we've seen the first two weeks. playing on the road for the first time might have something to do with that. Going against Marlon Mack and Colts' O-line will give us a much better idea about this Oakland defense.

Run-heavy

After losing their opening game at Chargers in the overtime, Colts won two in a row and improved their record to 2-1. First, they caused an upset in Nashville, beating their divisional rivals as an underdog. And then strung it into a mini winning streak by defeating the Falcons last week at home. Hosting the Raiders in this situation looks like a perfect spot to improve even further and stay at the top of the division with the Texans.

But will it really be that easy? TY Hilton is doubtful to play in this one after re-aggravating his quad injury. I already wrote about Raiders' aggressive pass defense. Colts will miss a quality speedster like him on the outside, that can beat that type of coverage and stretch the field for his QB. Funchess is on the IR, so they will have to go to their 3rd and 4th options at the receiver and I doubt that those guys can equally replace a player like Hilton. Doyle and Ebron are very good players, but from what we've seen in the first couple of weeks, this offense is not made to highlight the tight end position.

Seeing all the success that Dalvin Cook had last week, it will encourage them to run the ball more frequently. They do it a high percentage anyway. 48% of their plays were runs this year, which puts them in Top 5 in the NFL. Predicting how much success they'll have with it is quite difficult. One way or another, we know one thing for sure. That type of playcalling favors the under.

Colts vs Raiders best bet

Total sitting at 46 at the moment looks too high for me. There are several factors that make me believe that. I already mentioned the first one, the playcalling of the Colts. They like to run the ball. Second, slightly inflated line because of the belief that Raiders' defense is trash. They couldn't get off the field on the third down last week. With key wide receivers out for Indianapolis, they should have way more success stopping those 3rd & longs. Third: Raiders offense matching up against Colts defense. Last week I wrote about the Colts running a version fo cover 2 scheme. it's not easy to get explosive plays in passing offense against that defense. Corners are playing off and trying to keep things in front of them and they have safeties helping them over the top on each side.

Even though people view Derek Carr as a gunslinger, I see him as a methodical quarterback that likes to make "the right play". He spends most of the playing clock trying to figure out what the defense is doing and checking into a correct play at the line of scrimmage. He will rarely force the ball downfield if it's not there and will gladly take that 6-yard curl if the defense is giving it to him. NFL stats about pace is supporting my theory with Oakland's offense being the 2nd slowest. Interesting fact is that they are not really speeding it up when playing from behind. Indianapolis is 5th slowest.