Different Date, Same Semifinal
In today's semifinal of the WTA Premier 5 event in Wuhan, China, top seed Ashleigh Barty will play #9 seed Aryna Sabalenka for a spot in the final. 364 days ago, the same tournament saw the exact same matchup in the semifinal. Sabalenka, unseeded at that time last year, beat Barty 7-6 6-4 and went on to win the tournament.
Since then, a lot of tennis has been played and the two players' results this year could not have been more opposite. Barty won her first Grand Slam at Roland Garros and claimed the world #1 spot, while Sabalenka struggled all year. Reaching the final in San Jose has been the Belarusian's best result.
Return of the Tiger
At the US Open she suffered another tough loss against Yulia Putintseva in the second round. Afterwards, Sabalenka announced splitting with her coach Dmitry Tursunov on Instagram. A few days later, this was followed by an intense post including some pictures with him, asking herself what they were doing. Subsequently, they made the decision to send Sabalenka to the tournament in Zhengzhou alone. Back in Wuhan, Tursunov is joining her again. Focusing only on herself and her game really helped her to regain some form again. It's obvious to observers that she's playing more freely again here in Wuhan.
In the first two rounds, she stormed past Sasnovich, 6-1 6-2, and Collins, 6-1 6-0. In the third round, she was leading Kiki Bertens 6-1 5-1 before almost choking the match away. She eventually won the second set in a nerve-wracking tiebreak. In the quarterfinal, it was Elena Rybakina who fell victim to Sabalenka, 6-3 1-6 6-1.
Barty the Rightful Favorite?
Ashleigh Barty's path to the semifinal has been a bit more difficult. She beat a struggling Caroline Garcia from a set down in her first match before beating red-hot Sofia Kenin 6-3 7-5 and Petra Martic 7-6 3-6 6-3.
Although I consider the last two wins to be solid, I believe that the world #1 is still going through a little regression. She doesn't seem to be as relaxed on court as she has been before her French Open title. Pressure and increased media scrutiny are increasing constantly, so that's no surprise.
So while the year has been a great success for Barty and disappointing for Sabalenka, I do see the tides turning. Sabalenka impressed me again this week and when she's on, there's literally no one that can stop her. If Barty continues the negativity in her body language, I'm not sure if she can handle a powerful and freely playing Sabalenka.
This match can obviously go either way, but I'm happy with the underdog odds on an in-form Sabalenka and am taking her to yet again reach the final in Wuhan.
