Chelsea - Liverpool: Great value in Total Cards market

Chelsea host Liverpool at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. I think there's really good value to be found in the Total Cards market.

Chelsea

The Blues are off to a pretty descent start to the season. Frank Lampard's squad have amassed 8 points from 5 games so far, occupying spot 6 in the table.

Statistics

Only 4 teams committed fewer fouls than Chelsea last season in the Premier League, Chelsea commmitting on average 8.95 fouls per game.
Looking at home games specifically, only 1 team committed fewer fouls than Chelsea last season in the Premier League, Chelsea committing on average 8.16 fouls per game.

Only 1 team committed fewer fouls than Cheslea when facing top 6 teams at home last season:

This season looks set to continue in roughly the same way. 7 teams have committed fewer fouls than Chelseas so far this season, Chelsea committing on average 9.60 fouls per game.
Looking at home games specifically, only 3 teams have committed fewer fouls than Chelsea so far this season, Chelseas committing on average 7.50 fouls per game.

Liverpool

The Reds couldn't have wished for a better start to the domestic season. Sitting atop the table with 15 points from 5 games and a 5 point gap down to second placed Manchester City.

Statistics

No other team committed fewer fouls than Liverpool last season in the Premier League, Liverpool commmitting on average 8.29 fouls per game.
Looking at away games in particular, only 2 team committed fewer fouls than Liverpool last season in the Premier League, Liverpool committing on average 8.74 fouls per game on the road.

When facing top 6 teams or top half teams on the road last season, Liverpool was among the 6 teams committing the fewest fouls:

There's a similar pattern emerging this season too. Only 2 teams have committed fewer fouls than Liverpool so far this season, Liverpool committing on average 8.80 fouls per game.
Looking at away games in particular, 8 teams have committed fewer fouls than Liverpool so far this season, Liverpool committing on average 11.00 fouls per game.

Referee

Referee on Sunday is Michael Oliver. Mr Oliver is of a rather ambiguous nature. When overseeing games in the Champions League, he's displaying one of the highest average numbers of cards per game in the tournament. But when officiating games in the Premier League, he's displaying one of the lowest average numbers of cards per game in the league. Last season, only 6 referees handed out fewer yellow cards per game than Oliver in the Premier League, Oliver handing out on average 2.77 yellow cards per game (33.50 booking points per game). So far this season, only 5 referees have handed out fewer yellow cards per game than Oliver in the Premier League, Oliver handing out on average 2.50 yellow cards per game (25.00 booking points per game).

I might border on overanalyzing here, but looking at the average number of yellow cards and booking points dished out by Oliver over the last couple of seasons, both are on a downward trend:

Head to Head

The last 5 games between Chelsea and Liverpool have seen an average of 2.00 cards per game. However, one game in particular does contribute to raising the average: Round 37 in May 2018 when both teams were battling it out for a spot in the Champions League and Chelsea clinging on to a 1-0 lead being awarded 3 cards in the final minutes of the game. I find that scenario quite unlikely on Sunday. The other 4 games saw an average of 1.25 cards per game.

Check out more Premier League stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Chelsea is one of the teams committing the least amount of fouls, especially at home to top 6 teams.
Liverpool is consistently one of the teams committing the least amount of fouls in the league.
The referee is relatively tolerant when officiating games in the Premier League.
My Betting Tip is Total Cards: Under 3.5 (Asian Total Cards).
Stake at maximum 10/10 units.

Check out more odds on Chelsea - Liverpool here!