Bristol City host Swansea City at Ashton Gate on Saturday. I believe there's some value to be found in the total cards market.
Bristol City
The Robins are improving on last season and occupy 4:th place with 14 points from 7 games so far this season.
Statistics
Only 3 teams committed fewer fouls than Bristol City last season in the Championship, Bristol City commmitting on average 10.80 fouls per game.
Looking at home games specifically, only 4 team committed fewer fouls than Bristol City last season in the Championship, Bristol City committing on average 10.35 fouls per game.
Bristol City also committed a rather low amount of fouls when facing top 6 teams and top half teams at home last season:
This season looks set to continue in the same way. Only 2 teams have committed fewer fouls than Bristol City so far this season, Bristol City committing on average 10.86 fouls per game.
Looking at home games specifically, only 5 teams have committed fewer fouls than Bristol City so far this season, Bristol City committing on average 10.67 fouls per game.
Swansea
The Swans are also picking up points at a better rate than last season, losing the top spot to Leeds only on goal difference as it stands right now.
Statistics
No other team committed fewer fouls than Swansea last season in the Championship, Swansea commmitting on average 8.83 fouls per game.
Also when looking at away games solely, no other team committed fewer fouls than Swansea last season in the Championship, Swansea committing on average 9.26 fouls per game.
When facing top 6 teams or top half teams on the road last season, Swansea was by some distance the team committing the least amount of fouls in the Championship:
There's a similar pattern emerging this season too. Only 1 team have committed fewer fouls than Swansea so far this season, Swansea committing on average 10.43 fouls per game.
Looking at away games in particular, 9 teams have committed fewer fouls than Swansea so far this season, Swansea committing on average 12.33 fouls per game.
Referee
Referee on Sunday is Tony Harrington. When officiating games in the Championship, Harrington is displaying one of the lowest average numbers of cards per game. Last season, Harrington handed out on average 3.29 yellow cards per game (33.96 booking points per game). So far this season, only 4 referees have handed out fewer yellow cards per game than Harrington in the Championship, Harrington handing out on average 2.50 yellow cards per game (25.00 booking points per game).
Check out more Championship stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Both teams have a recent history of committing a really low number of fouls.
The referee is averaging a relatively low amount of cards when officiating games in the Championship.
Also, when the two teams met last season each of the games included 1 yellow card.
My Betting Tip is Total Cards: Under 2.5.
Stake at 7.5/10 units.
