Newcastle United host Brighton & Hove Albion at St James' Park on Saturday, and I do believe that the guests are slightly underestimated and the prospect of goals is somewhat overpriced in the current market.
Newcastle
The Magpies are off to a pale but rather expected start to the season. 4 points from 5 games place them just clear of the relegation zone.
Statistics
No other team has created less shots or shots on target than Newcastle so far this season, Newcastle creating on average 9.60 shots and 2.80 shots on target per game.
Only 7 teams have conceded more shots and only 7 teams have conceded more shots on target than Newcastle so far this season, Newcastle conceding on average 14.80 shots and 4.80 shots on target per game.
When playing at home, only 2 teams have created less shots and only 5 teams have created less shots on target than Newcastle so far this season, Newcastle creating on average 11.00 shots and 3.50 shots on target per game.
9 teams have conceded more shots but only 4 teams have conceded less shots on target than Newcastle so far this season, Newcastle conceding on average 10.50 shots and 2.50 shots on target per game.
Brighton
The Seagulls are just one point and one place above Newcastle in the table. The actual performance by the East Sussex club has been better than the table would suggest though, excellent sites like Experimental 361 and Infogol even stretching it so far that Brighton in fact should occupy a Top 6 spot based on performance and expected goals.
Statistics
Only 4 teams have created less shots and only 5 teams have created less shots on target than Brighton so far this season, Brighton creating on average 10.60 shots and 3.40 shots on target per game.
Only 7 teams have conceded less shots and only 5 teams have conceded less shots on target than Brighton so far this season, Brighton conceding on average 10.60 shots and 3.40 shots on target per game.
When on the road, no other team has created less shots and only 1 team has created less shots on target than Brighton so far this season, Brighton creating on average 5.50 shots and 2.50 shots on target per game.
7 teams have conceded less shots and 11 teams have conceded less shots on target than Brighton so far this season, Brighton conceding on average 13.00 shots and 4.50 shots on target per game. However, one of those early away games was to Mancester City at the Etihad. In the other away game so far, Brighton constricted Watford to just 3 shots on target.
Check out more Premier League stats here!
Conclusion & Betting Tips
Newcastle has started the season in a very moderate way, creating and conceding a really low amount of shots on target, especially at home.
Brighton is also creating and conceding a fairly low amount of shots on target so far this season, displaying a more vivid play with better potential. If any team will grind out a victory on Saturday, I think Brighton will be the ones to do it.
Also, in the last 4 games between the two teams (played during the last two seasons in the Premier League) the result has been two draws and two wins for Brighton and an average total goals of 1.00 per game; when at St James' Park the result has been one draw and one win for Brighton and an average total goals of 0.50 per game.
One of my Betting Tips is Brighton +0 (AH).
Stake at 5/10 units.
The other Betting Tip is Total Goals: Under 2.00.
Stake at 5/10 units.
