Exaggeration?
Some might say that I'm exaggerating with this defensive dynasty thing and you might be right. But this Jaguars defense really had the potential to do something big. The front office did a good job building it up through the draft with talent like Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, Myles Jack, Telvin Smith... And adding some top free agents like Calais Campbell, Marcel Dareus, and AJ Bouye. This unit carried the team on their back all the way to the AFC championship game in 2017. But it seems like we'll never see them fulfilling their potential because it's falling apart in front of our eyes.
It probably started already last year, when they underperformed as a team and went 5-11, after being 12-4 the year before. Injuries, no help from the offense and teams finding creases in their scheme were probably the main reasons for that. This year they started 0-2, while in their second game at Houston, there was an altercation on the sidelines between head coach Doug Marrone and Jalen Ramsey. After that, rumors came out that Ramsey demanded a trade and it seems like he that is in the works now. He is still with the Jaguars and will play tonight, but it's quite possible that he's getting traded next week.
Speaking of that last week game, it was a very thrilling one, on and off the field. Besides that scuffle between Marone and Ramsay, Jaguars managed a comeback in the 4th quarter after being 10 points behind. DJ Chark caught a touchdown to bring the score to 12-13, with just seconds to go. And then Marone decided to go for the win with a 2-point conversion, but Leonard Fournette was stopped just inches short of the goal-line.
Overlooked
With all this non-sense with Ramsay, one guy is not getting enough mention. It's their rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew, who stepped in after Nick Foles went down with a broken collarbone. He plays with some poise and swagger, proving Jaguars right by taking a flyer on him in the sixth round. He is completing 77,6% of the throws so far. He threw for 3 touchdowns and only 1 interception. And he has some mobility to get out of the pocket and run for the first down when the receiving options are not open.
But, I doubt they're letting him loose in this one. Some bad weather is forecasted for tonight in Jacksonville. Wind gusts can really mess up your passing game, so I'm guessing he'll take a back seat to the running game, featuring Leonard Fournette. Titans played really well against the run last week when stopping Marlon Mack to only 51 yards. But from what I've seen, they are better equipt for defending those outside zone runs, by setting the edge nicely and then rally to the ball. When it comes to power runs through the middle, they are much more vulnerable and that 's where Jacksonville could have some success. Especially with Cam Robinson back in the lineup. That unit with Norwell, Linder, and Cann has the ability to move people.
I expect a lot of the same from the Titans. They have their workhorse in Derrick Henry and there is a hole in the middle of Jacksonville run defense. They seemingly patched it up last year by signing Marcel Dareus, but in the last two games, they had issues with it once again.
Jaguars vs Titans best bet
It' a tough one. The case can be built for pretty much anything. With wind gusts and a both running games being prioritized, that under bet looks nice. But as I said, both teams should have success running the ball and when you can get 4-5 yards with your 1st down run in between tackles, you can find some rhythm offensively and the entire playbook opens up. Also, Jaguars pass defense can be elite when focused, as we could see in Houston. But can also be undisciplined and lose guys in zone coverage, when their heads are not in the game. With these Ramsay trade rumors, I'm guessing the latter could happen tonight.
Player props for this game seem pretty accurate as well, but I found a couple where we might have some edge. I think the line for Fournette's receiving yards is a bit high. He dropped his weight down in the offseason to be more explosive, but I haven't seen that in the first couple of games. He is their every-down back and plays a ridiculous amount of snaps. He stays in on passing downs and is averaging around 34 receiving yards per game. He improved in that segment since his days at LSU, but he is still not a natural route runner, nor pass catcher. Also, Titans have some fast linebackers and safeties that are decent in coverage and have held opposing running backs in check so far.
