ATP St. Petersburg - Can Rublev cool down Medvedev?

Medvedev Madness

In the last quarterfinal of the St. Petersburg Open, two local heroes are facing each other today. Andrey Rublev will take on red-hot Daniil Medvedev, whose success has been the storyline of the summer on the ATP tour.

The 23-year-old from Moscow has competed in three consecutive finals on the US hard court swing, culminating in his first ATP Masters 1000 win in Cincinnati. During that stretch, he played 18 matches (16 in singles) in 20 days. All that just to go on yet another run at the US Open.

It seemed like he was about to quit in every match from the second round on, but he picked up a whole new level of motivation, mainly through his feud with the New York crowd, and somehow made his way into the final against Rafa Nadal. Said final was one for the ages and once again reflected Medvedev's tournament. Going down 0-2 sets, the final seemed over, but somehow, Medvedev's body took him to another wild comeback. In the end, he lost 5-7 3-6 7-5 6-4 4-6 in his first ever Grand Slam final.

Clash of Compatriots

Usually, the big guns go on a little holiday after Grand Slams or at least try to get some rest. Given the state Medvedev was in after all these tournaments in North America, it was rumored that the Russian would not participate on home soil this week. However, he showed up and won his first round against compatriot Evgeny Donskoy 7-5 6-3.

Today's opponent will be another Russian on the rise in Andrey Rublev. The world #38 had some great results himself in the US, reaching the quarterfinal stage in Cincinnati and Winston-Salem as well as the fourth round at the US Open. Players like Wawrinka, Federer, Tsitsipas and Kyrgios all fell to Rublev during that stretch.

On his way to the title, Medvedev beat Rublev in the quarterfinal of Cincinnati, 6-2 6-3. Today, they are both competing under complete different conditions though. Not only did Medvedev have a full week less of rest, he also had lots of media obligations to fulfill. After that arduous run, he should have been the guy putting in some more rest.

Fatigue Factor

There are many factors icorporated when analyzing a tennis match, one of them is fatigue. Most of the time, this is a soft factor for me as these professionals can switch it off for the most part during matches, but this time, I think it definitely matters. The amount of matches Medvedev played this summer is absolutely ridiculous.

While I think Rublev stands a chance under normal circumstances, the chances only get better against a knackered opponent. I'm not sure if Medvedev will maintain his intensity level at home, playing another Russian. Therefore, I expect a much closer match than the odds suggest. Again, I will split my stake in two parts, taking Rublev to win the match and Rublev to win a set.