New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns: Is it over before it even started?

Mono

20 minutes to go in their opening game, there was a lot to like about this year's New York Jets. They have a new head coach (Adam Gase) that was brought in to help further develop their exciting young quarterback Sam Darnold. They added a couple of new weapons on that side of the ball like Le'Veon Bell and Jamison Crowder. The defense was playing well and they were up 16-0 against their divisional rivals Buffalo Bills.

From that point on, their world fell apart. They managed to stop the Bills on 3rd down but kept it alive by committing the penalty for roughing the passer. Then Trumaine Johnson dropped an interception in the red zone. They kept offering chances to Buffalo and in the end, the visiting team took advantage of them. They scored 17 unanswered points to leave the Jets fans in shock at Meadowlands.

But that was probably not the biggest shock. Just a couple days later, while preparing for a Monday Night Football bout against the Browns, Jets found out that their starting QB Sam Darnold will be out for several weeks. He was infected by mononucleosis, which can sideline athletes for a longer period in more severe cases. Luckily, Darnold seems to be feeling better already, but he is definitely out for tonight. Timetable for his return is set after their Week 4 bye. Trevor Simien is the next man up.

2004

That is the year when the Cleveland Browns won their season opener last time. Last week, they got stomped by Tennessee Titans 13-43, even though they were favored by quite a bit. Speaking of futures bets, the Browns were probably one of the most popular Superbowl picks this year. But we've seen situations like this one, many times before. Team being really bad for a long time. Then starting to bring in some big names in free agency, which tricks people into starting the bandwagon little too soon. This is an ultimate team sport and many thing need to fall in place for results to come. Signing Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry will not be enough.

They will meet a well-known face tonight. Defensive coordinator for the Jets is Greg Williams, who was with the Browns last year. He will be fired up for this one, feeling that he got passed over for that head coaching job once Hue Jackson was fired. Instead of him, Cleveland surprisingly gave the keys to Freddie Kitchens, who was a running backs coach just a couple weeks earlier. Williams is a big motivator and I'm sure he'll get his men ready to fly all over the field in this game.

Jets vs Browns best bet

I was thinking about this one for some time. Leaning Jets +7 at first. Browns being overrated a bit. Prime-time home game for the Jets. Defensive coordinator knowing the weaknesses of his former colleagues and should have a good game-plan in place to slow them down. But I simply can't get behind Simien in this spot. He is very limited and with Enunwa out, there are only couple of receiving options left for him to throw to. Also, Williams is a very aggressive play-caller and loves to blitz. Mayfield probably has a feel for where it's going to come from and can pick them up. Once the blitzes get picked up, defensive backs are sitting ducks back there. Especially when going vs elite receivers.

That being said, I then thought about OBJ or Landry going over for a while. These are the matchups that they should really be beating more often than not. But the problem here is that Kitchens is a run-first guy. They stayed committed to it last week, even while being behind on the scoreboard. If they jump out into lead here, we will get a big dose of Nick Chubb.

Knowing Denzel Ward was shadowing Corey Davis last week (and kept him catch-less) almost tempted me into betting Robby Anderson under 3.5 receptions. But ultimately, I decided to stick with Chubb. It's a big line, but with Cleveland most likely playing with a lead, he is getting 20+ carries in this one (after 17 carries for 75 yards in a 30-points defeat). Jets can't stack the box with an extra defender, with all the receiving threats on the outside. Also, his backup Hillard is out, so he has no competition for playing time in this backfield. Kitchens is committed to the running game and he doesn't really have a reason not to be in this situation.