Overreaction week
Week 2 in the NFL is also referred to as an "Overreaction week". People tend to make conclusions about certain teams based on one game (week 1), which is not the best idea. The betting markets will follow and give sharper bettors an opportunity to find value by backing teams that didn't perform that well last week and vice versa.
A textbook example of that are the Pittsburgh Steelers. They got spanked by the New England Patriots on Sunday night football on national television. The most common things that I read afterward were: "They are not very good without Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell". "Mike Tomlin should be fired a long time ago". "Ben Roethlisberger is old", etc. Some of those things could be partially true, but they are still a solid football team and getting beat by the Patriots in Foxborough is nothing shocking really. Many other teams will get run over there in the next couple of months.
What I like about this team is that they will handle many of their opponents in the trenches. They fell behind really fast in New England last week and had to completely abandon their running game. But in this one, running the ball with James Conner behind one of the best offensive lines in football will be a major factor for them.
Escaping by the skin of their teeth
One the other side, Seattle somehow managed to avoid the disaster in their home opener. They hosted rebuilding Cincinnati Bengals as a double-digit favorite and somehow escaped with a 1 point win. Running game was such a big part of their offense last year, but it simply didn't click vs Bengals. Chris Carson got bottled up for 46 yards on 15 carries. OL was dominated by Cincy's front 7. Missing Joey Hunt at center was surprisingly a big deal and he is out for this game as well.
Defensively, there were some good and some bad things. Front 7 looked solid with Bobby Wagner leading the way as one of the highest-paid defensive players in the league. But on the back end, it was obvious that Legion of Boom days are over. Allowing Andy Dalton to pick you apart like that must be humiliating. It's worth mentioning that AJ Green was out and he was not protected that well by his OL. Tre Flowers and Jamar Taylor got burned on many occasions. Tedric Thompson at free safety had an opportunity at an easy interception, but miss-timed his jump and allowed a TD instead. All those things are not going to cut it vs the Steelers, whose receivers should have a fun day today.
Steelers vs Seahawks best bet
Losing Justin Coleman in free agency was a big blow for this secondary. With him manning the slot, they looked much better. Right now, there are too many holes to exploit, and even their No.1 guy Shaquill Griffin will struggle to keep up with the best pass-catchers. That being said, Steelers receivers over receiving yards are the way to go here. But which one?
I admit that I was doubting JuJu Smith-Schuster last week. I wanted to see how is he going to deal with the fact that defenses are going to focus on him now and often cover him with their best corner. He passed that test with flying colors after catching 6 passes for 78 yards, while being shadowed by arguably the best corner in the league - Stephon Gilmore. Seattle has nobody nearly as good as Gilmore in their secondary and Steelers also move JuJu around a lot. Lining him up in the slot vs Jamar Taylor is just not fair.
Besides this prop, I also like the Steelers to cover in this one. I feel like they are the better team overall, which is not reflected by this line. Seahawks struggled offensively vs the Bengals front and Steelers can replicate that. DL was actually graded really well last week in that 33-3 stomping, and did their part of the job, vs a much better OL then Seattle's. Winning the battle in the trenches, having a favorable matchup in the passing game, playing the home opener and trying to bounce back after a tough loss at an AFC rival. It sounds like a solid bounce-back spot.
