Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bounceback week

Week 1

Both these teams started their season with a loss on Sunday. Before the game, it was very interesting to see how the Bucs will look under the new coaching staff. It was a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type of deal. Really good when the defense was on the field and really bad when the offense was out.

And that was quite a surprise, I must say. Many people expected this offense to take a step forward under Bruce Ariens, who had a lot of success in his previous endeavors. Helping Jameis Winston to clean up some of the mistakes that were holding him back and put a system in place that will highlight his strengths... We've seen none of that on Sunday. The offense was very sloppy. Winston threw 3 interceptions with two of them being returned for a touchdown. He made horrible decisions under pressure. And all that against one of the worst defensive units in the league last year.

They were in the game until the last quarter just because the defense was playing so well. Todd Bowles didn't have much success as a head coach in New York with the Jets, but once again proved that he is a defensive mastermind. His defense was flying around the field. Kept Niners rushing to 3 yards per carry, even though that's considered Shanahan's forte. Former 1st round pick Vernon Hargraves, who was flirting with a bust label in previous seasons had a great game. Intercepting a pass in the first half and returning it for a touchdown.

On the other side, Carolina's defeat was not as surprising. They hosted a team that played the Superbowl last year. Rams showed that their offense will be hard to stop once again. But it was not all that grim for the Panthers. Cam Newton's shoulder seemed healthy again. McCaffrey will once again be a focal point of the offense and with this type of production in consideration for the All-pro team. The defense was pretty good on all levels. And in the first half of the game, they outgained the Rams quite a bit but had some self-inflicted wounds that were difficult to overcome (turnovers, penalties)

The matchup

Neither of these two teams wants to go 0-2 to start the season because it will put them in a very difficult position in a playoff race. That is why I expect a great effort from both sides in this game. But from what we've seen last year, road defenses on a short week often have some issues to perform up to the expected level. That is why I am in no rush to get behind Tampa Bay here. The defense is probably the only thing that can keep them in this game because I doubt the offense can improve a lot from what we've seen on Sunday. Especially when going against way better defense.

But week 2 is also known as an "overreaction week". People tend to overreact on things that happened in week 1 and I feel like laying 7 with Carolina here would fall into that category. The total seems about right as well. I like both defenses here, but the tempo that these two teams are playing with is pretty fast. Both had around 70 offensive snaps last week. Tampa likes to throw the ball and with Winston's tendency to turn it over, all hell can break loose with defensive touchdowns and short field scenarios. That's why I'm skipping the under.

Panthers vs Bucs best bet

No surprise here, we're going to my beloved player props once again. Mike Evans receiving yards line is completely off. He is a talented player who had some great seasons and is considered one of the best at his position. That is probably how they come up with this line. But this is a horrible matchup for him. James Bradberry had his number last year, keeping him to 16 and 48 yards on two occasions when they went against each other. And it's not like they were not trying to get him the ball. He had 13 targets combined in those two games but only came up with 5 grabs. Bradberry is a long and physical press corner that can disrupt Evans release off the line and should be able to do it once again here.

Looking at how they did last week. Bradberry graded out as one of the best corners in the league. Allowing a single catch for 11 yards vs one of the best receiving cores in the league. Evans went 2 from 5 for 28 yards. Struggling to beat single coverage vs Akhello Whitherspoon on one occasion, which is a pretty bad look for him. Receivers can sometimes benefit from the change of system and it can go the other way as well. It seems that the later is happening in Evans' situation.

This line has gotten away a little bit since I took it last night and locked it in my spreadsheet, but still holds a lot of value. I believe the line is 20 yards off here, but I still encourage you to shop around and get the best line you can. Books like Bethard, Unibet, Bet365, Bwin, and others are offering this prop. For daily fantasy fanatics, I advise you to look in another direction. Evans' counterpart Chris Godwin had a strong performance last week. It seems that he will have a similar role to Larry Fitzgerald's during Ariens' time in Arizona. A big slot receiver that is going to get matched up against smaller corners and safeties. And that is exactly where Carolina struggled in coverage last week vs Los Angeles Rams.