US Open Women - Swiatek vs. Sevastova

Rainy weather slowing down US Open courts

Court speed is one of the toughest things to measure in tennis. Tournaments don't really provide us with information on it, so statements are always influenced by subjective perception. I assumed the courts at Flushig Meadows to be a little faster again this year, but from what I've seen the last two days, the conditions are pretty similar to last year's. Balls are the same as well and all things put together result in medium slow courts. Today's rainy conditions won't speed up the courts either.

Swiatek able to trouble top seeds already

On court 13, we have two players that can cope with these conditions really well. One of them, the young Pole Iga Swiatek, is another teenager climbing up the rankings. After Andreescu, Anisimova and Yastremska, she's the fourth-best teenager in the rankings at #49. The 18-year-old is still flying a bit under the radar as she's not as polarizing as the other three.

Being 34-16 this year and 17-7 on hards, her level of play improved drastically in the second half of 2019. She qualified for both Cincinnati and Toronto and beat some bigger names in Tomljanovic, Wozniacki and Garcia in the main draws. In two tight matches, she lost to Osaka in Toronto and Kontaveit in Cincinnati before taking the week before the US Open off.

Will Sevastova's temper get in her way?

Anastasija Sevastova is a player that usually beats who she's supposed to beat, but struggles when facing quality opponents. She made it to the semifinals at the US Open last year, so she knows how to perform well here in New York. On the downside, she has lots of points to defend which will increase the pressure on her. She never had that many points to defend and with her being a very emotional player, that could surely be an issue.

Facing an opponent that plays a very similar style to her own, Sevastova would most likely be the first player to start arguing over little things. She usually beats opponents with her tricky play, but gets into trouble when facing players that can play with variety too, recently seen in Cincinnati where she lost to Kuznetsova.

Taking form over past results

While Sevastova's ELO ratings are still slightly ahead of Swiatek's, the form curve tells another story. The Latvian lost to Tig, Zhang and Kuznetsova post Wimbledon besides winning a tournament in domestic Jurmala, where, apart from Potapova, none of her opponents have been ranked inside the top 150.

The fact that Swiatek can hit with Sevastova on both sides and has some variety to her game herself paired with the 18-year-old probably being the more calmed player makes me think that Swiatek can get away with this one. Pressure and temper might also hinder Sevastova's play. At underdog odds, I'm taking the talented Pole to win.