US Open Women’s Draw

Anything is possible. Such a worn-out phrase, but so spot-on at the same time when looking at women’s tennis draws.

When Naomi Osaka won back to back Grand Slam titles in January, the media and tennis circus were convinced there would be a new Serena and that a change of power had already taken place. After that though, the “most marketable athlete in 2019” was stagnating for pretty much the whole year. She just reclaimed the #1 in the world, but that’s mainly because fellow campaigners had more points to defend and weren’t able to go on a consistent run either over the last few weeks.

You only have to look at the Slams to understand the unpredictability of the WTA. Ashleigh Barty, who likes herself some fast courts, won in Paris while Simona Halep, the epitome of counterpunching tennis, won Wimbledon.

Nevertheless, I will venture to do a little preview on the last major of the year.

First quarter #1 Osaka / #7 Bertens

Both top seeds in the first quarter did not impress with consistency over the last few weeks. Osaka reclaimed the #1 mainly because her rivals played even worse. Kiki Bertens lost to Strycova, Teichmann, Andreescu and Venus Williams in her last 4 tournaments. You would expect a strong #7 seed to win all of these, the Canadian rising star being the exception. Both players also struggle a bit on the mental side. The main reason for all these Bertens losses was that she was way more tensed than last year while Osaka just openly admitted that she didn’t have much fun playing tennis after Melbourne, but she learned a lot about herself in all these 2019 losses and is ready to go again. I’m still not sold on a complete turnaround, but we’ll see how this turns out here in New York. Both of them need a few easy wins in the early rounds to regain some confidence, that’s for sure.

There’s definitely some room to attack for potential longshots in that quarter. Coco Gauff is the most hyped tennis player in quite a while and some books had her at 25/1 to win the US Open, which was one of the craziest prices I’ve ever seen considering she has never beaten a big name outside of Venus, who struggles with consistency late in her career, and just recently lost to Zarina Diyas in Washington. A potential third round between Osaka and Gauff would surely be “popcornworthy”, but I don’t consider the 15-year-old as a real threat in a Slam just yet.

Osaka’s eighth also has Anett Kontaveit and Belinda Bencic as seeded players and I like these two to meet in the third round despite facing some tough cookies in the second round. Especially Bencic is a player I'm looking out for this tournament. After having a brilliant start to the year, her play has slightly declined, but we all know it just takes a good match or two for these girls to catch fire again. The Swiss has been preparing in New York for a while now and I will have a play on her both to win the quarter and to win it all.

The other eighth is the epitome of unpredictability. It’s filled with players that can beat anyone on a good day, but these good days have become increasingly elusive. #9 seed Aryna Sabalenka is facing compatriot Victoria Azarenka to start which is one of the top 3 matches to look out for in round one. Donna Vekic is the projected opponent of the winning Belarusian in round three and despite losing a few outrights on Vekic already this season, I think this could be the breakout tournament for her. She didn't get that one big win that boosts her confidence on another level yet, but her draw looks kind and I think she can make it far into the second week here.

It’s hard to tell who her opponent in the last 16 could be. Julia Goerges and Veronika Kudermetova both can hit, but who will come out on top? The same question arises in a potential Pavlyuchenkova vs. Bertens matchup with both players currently struggling big-time.

Q1 Prediction

Bencic over Osaka

Vekic over Goerges

Bencic over Vekic

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Second quarter #4 Halep / #6 Kvitova

Simona Halep is the top seed in the second quarter and as much as I like to oppose her with bigger hitters, the draw treated her well. A potential third-round opponent is Katerina Siniakova, but I doubt the talented Czech could cope with Halep for much longer than a set while Barbora Strycova looks a bit out of form after having great success at Wimbledon just like Halep. If Halep doesn’t make it to the last 16, that would be a huge surprise to me.

We have quite a lot of great projected matchups in earlier rounds already and the fourth-round match in the top half of this quarter will be one of them if both Halep and Bianca Andreescu make it there. The Canadian with Romanian roots might have to go through a tricky matchup in Caroline Wozniacki the round before, but at the same time, this would be a great preparation for a potential Halep clash. “Tricky” also describes Andreescu’s play quite well as she’s looking badly injured at times just to start hitting every shot of her widely ranged repertoire. She definitely is a special one and might go far here.

While looking forward to a first-time Halep-Andreescu encounter, a prediction in the other eighth is much tougher again. #11 seed Sloane Stephens has been an auto-fade since lacking desire for wins throughout the year. Now with the controversial comeback of her former coach Kamau Murray, her spirit might be reignited. Monica Puig has been coached by Murray until last week when he told her that he wouldn’t make it to the US Open with her. The reemployment by Stephens caught Puig off-guard and if there’s no other side of the coin, that’s a really questionable conduct which will cause some stories in the first week of the US Open for sure. Stephens’ draw sees qualifier Kalinskaya first before playing either Ahn or the reinvigorated Svetlana Kuznetsova. The third round shouldn’t cause too many problems for a motivated Sloane either with streaky players like Ostapenko, Muguruza or Riske waiting.

Petra Kvitova is a player I would really love to see going far here on these fast-looking courts as the match is always on her racquet. However, I’m still not sold on her fitness as that elbow injury took her off for quite some time. If she is fit though, she should absolutely cruise through a projected draw of Allertova, Petkovic/Buzarnescu and Mertens. Therefore, I see Stephens and Kvitova facing in the fourth round, due to a lack of alternatives.

Q2 Prediction

Andreescu over Halep

Stephens over Kvitova

Andreescu over Stephens

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Third quarter #3 Pliskova / #5 Svitolina

You will find plenty of alternatives in the third quarter instead. Ukrainian Elina Svitolina is the #5 seed, but her road is anything but easy. After facing talented Whitney Osuigwe, either Saisai Zheng or Venus Williams would wait in round two. I’m really hoping for an all-Ukrainian matchup in round three between Svitolina and big-hitting Dayana Yastremska though. Yastremska is one of the most talented players out there and just like Vekic, she only needs a big win in a big match like this to get to the next level. Anyway, she has to go through Monica Niculescu and the greatly improved Swede Rebecca Peterson first which also means some hard work in rounds one and two.

All of that has only been the first mini-section of the quarter. If a Ukrainian comes out on top of that, she would most likely face an American in the fourth round, with #20 Sofia Kenin and #10 Madison Keys probably meeting in round three. They should make it there pretty easily and both Kenin and Keys can be considered a real threat on winning the title. Kenin made back to back semifinals in Toronto and Cincinnati where she only got beaten by Keys, who proceeded to win the title. So their form could not be any better and this is just a nightmare of a draw for both of them.

No, this still hasn’t been the whole quarter, just the top eighth! The other side has some more attackable seeds with #16 Konta, #17 Vondrousova and #27 Garcia all struggling with consistency or injury problems. Anyway, their opponents don’t seem to make a great case for themselves either. Despite the rather fast courts, I would most likely pick Daria Kasatkina to cause some trouble with humidity offering an opportunity for athletes like her.

Just like at Wimbledon, Karolina Pliskova comes upon a picture-perfect draw. The only concern is that she’s still losing matches she should be able to win easily by beating herself a lot. Being 27 years of age and with lots of newcomers knocking on the door, you don’t want to squander good draws like that. She should be facing Pera in round two before probably playing the winner of the famous Garcia-Brady derby in round three.

The Czech should at least make it to the quarterfinals here where she would face whoever comes out on top of this Svitolina-Yastremska-Kenin-Keys eighth. Since I’m not able to predict who this will be nor the odds on one of them excites me enough, I will have a bet on Pliskova to win the quarter.

Q3 Prediction

Keys over Yastremska

Pliskova over Kasatkina

Pliskova over Keys

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Fourth quarter #2 Barty / #8 Williams

Serena Williams against Maria Sharapova - so many memories come to mind when reading these names (not too many good ones if you’re a fan of the Russian), but a first-round match is not involved. Actually, it’s the first time these two champions have to face each other that early in a tournament. While both are running out of steam a bit, this will definitely be a major attraction.

It’s always tough to get some serious statements regarding Serena’s health, but if she’s anywhere close to 100%, she should make it through her first rounds. If not, Catherine McNally, Elena Rybakina and Karolina Muchova are all legit hardcourt talents who will make some noise sooner or later. Williams is projected to face #12 seed Anastasija Sevastova in the fourth round, but I can also see Petra Martic or Iga Swiatek taking the Latvian’s place. Especially the young Pole, who quietly made it to the top 50 recently, is one to watch. She's been going through qualies in Toronto, where she beat Wozniacki in the main draw, and Cincinnati, only losing to Osaka and Kontaveit. Having said that, she shouldn't be too big of a threat for Williams just yet if the American makes it this far.

Ashleigh Barty is looming at the bottom of the draw and a potential third round against Maria Sakkari would be another match to look forward to. Sakkari has to play Camila Giorgi first which adds to the intriguing round one matchups in turn.

Three-time Grand Slam winner Angelique Kerber is also part of this section and after not winning anything this year, it feels like she has to deliver at least one major result after losing to Collins, Potapova and Davis in the previous ones. Angie loves flying under the radar and I expect her to play more freely again after the media pressure kind of overwhelmed her at Wimbledon. Her first-round opponent, Kiki Mladenovic, is reverting to old patterns again after a promising start under coach Sascha Bajin. Right now, I can’t see her getting past a good defensive player like Kerber.

If the German gets the desired first-round win, she will be a level too high for Fiona Ferro and Qiang Wang as well. The fourth round foresees a clash with Ash Barty and while I expect the Aussie to do better again as well, she does struggle with her serve lately. So I’m going with the higher oods and take a shot at Kerber to win the quarter as Williams’ odds are just way too low with injury concerns and capable quarterfinal opponents.

Q4 Prediction

S. Williams over Swiatek

Kerber over Barty

Kerber over S. Williams