Liverpool - Arsenal, Greater gap than indicated by the table alone

On Saturday Premier League leader Liverpool host second placed Arsenal. The two teams are the only ones yet to lose points this season. Nevertheless I believe that there’s quite a gap between the rivaling giants.

Liverpool

Squad status

First choice goalkeeper Alisson sustained a calf injury against Norwich and will be sidelined for some time. Adrian will most probably deputize on Saturday.
Center-Back Dejan Lovren and midfielder Naby Keita will almost certainly miss out.
More important for this tip is the fact that the squad, the manager and the style of play basically is the same as last season.

Analysis

Liverpool performed really well at home last season facing the top teams in the league.

Liverpool created on average 5.8 shots on target per game at home against the top half teams last season. Liverpool scored on average 2.22 goals per game at home against the top half teams last season, scoring 38.5% of the shots on target (which is close to the 39.3% that Liverpool scored against all teams last season).
Liverpool conceded on average 2.2 shots on target per game at home against the top half teams last season. Liverpool conceded on average 0.44 goals per game at home against the top half teams last season, saving 80% of the shots on target (which is way better than the 77% that Liverpool saved against all teams last season).

Arsenal

Squad status

Left-Back Kieran Tierney and Right-Back Héctor Bellerín will miss the game. Possibly also midfielders Mohamed Elneny, Mesut Özil and Granit Xhaka.
As I write, the squad for Saturday isn't confirmed. However, I find it more important that in essence the manager and the style of play (and the squad) is very much the same as last season.

Analysis

Arsenal performed rather mediocre when facing the other top 6 teams on the road last season (or the top half teams for that matter).

Arsenal created on average 2.7 shots on target per game on the road against the top half teams last season. Arsenal scored on average 0.89 goals per game on the road against the top half teams last season, scoring 33% of the shots on target (which is significantly lower than the 43% that Arsenal scored against all teams last season).
Arsenal conceded on average 7.4 shots on target per game against the top half teams last season. Arsenal conceded on average 2.44 goals per game against the top half teams last season, saving 67% of the shots on target (which is worse than the 72% that Arsenal saved against all teams last season).

Check out more Premier League stats here!

Conclusion & Betting Tips

Liverpool was the top performer at home against top 6 competition last season.
Arsenal on the other hand performed below par when facing top 6 or even top half teams on the road last season.
Also, Liverpool won the last 3 games against Arsenal at Anfield 3-1, 4-0 and 5-1 (winning shots on target 7-3, 10-0 and 10-2).
My Betting Tips is Liverpool to win with a handicap -1,25 (AH).
Stake: 5/10 units.

Check out more odds on Liverpool-Arsenal here!