US Open Qualifying Men - Krueger vs. Gerasimov

New York weather shows no mercy

The humidity angle may not have worked out in our last bet as Li couldn't take advantage of a 5-3 lead in the first set tiebreak. He lost 8 of the following 9 points and found himself down 6-7 0-1* which was pretty much decisive as Ward didn't offer much on serve afterwards.

Nevertheless, the fourth day of qualifying will be the hottest and I will stick to opposing players that might display fitness or injury issues. The match I'm previewing today will be the one between American Mitchell Krueger and Belarusian Egor Gerasimov in the second round of men's qualifying.

Gerasimov likely to struggle again

Both of them had a day off yesterday and really needed that. While Krueger made hard work of his first round against Jay Clarke, beating the Brit 6-7 6-4 6-4, Gerasimov was on court an hour less in his 6-4 6-4 win against Stefan Kozlov. Despite winning in straight sets, the Belarusian already looked like on his last leg mid-second set. He tried to keep rallyes short, which is not a huge surprise considering his style, but his serve didn't look alright either and he was sluggish even getting to his seat at changeovers. Kozlov had him in the ropes in rallyes, but also lost all aggressiveness himself and handed the win to Gerasimov in the end.

Krueger is on another level than Kozlov though and after one day of rest, the American should be able to go again. His counterpunching style and his ability to hit decent passing shots suit him in the matchup against Gerasimov. In longer rallyes, I see Krueger come out on top most of the time.

Close match expected

The Belarusian does not have the best return of serve, so I expect a close match between the two. Bookmakers and bettors made Mitchell Krueger an even bigger underdog since lines opened yesterday, resulting in the handicap rising from 1.5 to 2.5 games. I definitely don't see Gerasimov rolling through this one with potential fitness issues cropping up again. So even in a loss, Krueger could cover that handicap with a 6-7 6-7 result not being too far-fetched.