ATP Winston-Salem - Outright Preview

Last week before US Open

Leaving Cincinnati, the ATP tour will make one last stop before arriving in New York as there's another 250 event in Winston-Salem. The US Open qualifying will also take place this week, so this tournament is mainly used by players already qualified to get one last heat check in.

Unlike any other ATP 250, Winston-Salem has a 48 player field with the top 16 players getting a BYE to the second round. The tournament is held at Wake Forest University and ranks among the medium-fast hard court events on tour.

Last year's champion Daniil Medvedev won't be here to defend his title as he will be playing his third final in three weeks against Goffin in Cincinnati tonight. So world #29 Benoît Paire will be the top seed while #34 Denis Shapovalov accepted a Wild Card to play as the second seed.

Motivational issues in American heat

With the US Open coming up, not all contestants will be 100% motivated to win the title here - it's more about getting into the right groove for the last major of the year and maybe getting a few more wins under one's belt. This usually opens up an opportunity for long shots to go far.

The tournament will end on Saturday, two days before the start of the US Open, but it will also be hot and humid out there - weather report forecasts temperatures in the mid-30s (around 90°F). So this should be considered another aspect as it's much tougher to play in these conditions.

Top half of the draw

Benoît Paire is one of the players that sometimes lack motivation and with him being the second tournament favorite, this opens up a chance already. In his quarter, there are some capable players in compatriot Ugo Humbert, Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta and Italian Lorenzo Sonego.

With Humbert being the #15 seed and playing either Amir Weintraub, who used his PR and only won 6 games of tennis in the last two and a half years, or a qualifier in the second round before facing Paire, Gunneswaran or Stebe in round three, I really like the Frenchman's draw. As I can't really pick a winner in a potential Carreno Busta vs. Sonego match, I would go with Ugo Humbert in the first quarter. He's available at 26 odds to win the tournament or at 5.50 odds to win the quarter.

The second quarter sees a lot of opportunities. Portuguese João Sousa is the #4 seed and you can take him at 12 odds to win his quarter or at 51 odds to win it all. With the conditions suiting him, I think these numbers are a bit too high despite his bad record here in Winston-Salem. Apart from Sousa, I think Robin Haase, John Millman, Steve Johnson and Daniel Evans all have the chance to go on a little run here as well, but I went with the biggest number of the five.

Bottom half of the draw

Sam Querrey and Denis Shapovalov are the two betting favorites in the bottom half of the draw. I don't mind them to go far, but I'm just hoping for them to not be 100% motivated and will look for some bigger odds to take. Both of them are looming in the fourth quarter, so let's see if we can find someone to back in the third.

The Pole Hubert Hurkacz is the #3 seed and I really like his progression this year. Relying on a good serve, he also upped his game from the baseline and I think he's still a little undervalued by the bookmakers. You can get him at 17 odds to win the tournament or at 5.00 to win the third quarter, which in my eyes is the best option for an outright this week as Querrey and Shapovalov are his possible semifinal opponents.

Apart from Hurkacz, I also like Frances Tiafoe in the third quarter as there are questionmarks all around his opponents. Chardy didn't play on hard courts since Miami, same applies to Krajinovic. Seppi and Berdych didn't play tennis at all since Wimbledon and I would be careful, especially considering the Czech's fitness. Then again, Tiafoe's odds were a little too short for me to take.

As mentioned, Querrey and Shapovalov are looming in the fourth quarter of the draw. Bookmakers make Andrey Rublev and Andy Murray the third and fourth option. While Rublev is a little too short for me as well, Murray is still on his way to get to full fitness, going match by match. If you're looking for a long shot here, I would propose Miomir Kecmanović who's also getting better and better. He's available at 51 odds or at 15 odds to win the quarter, which would be the better option of the two in my opinion.

The week before a Slam always offers lots of opportunities, so this is what I'm going with.