Introduction to the Election
American voters face a stark choice between incumbent Donald Trump and rival Joe Biden when they head to the polls on November 3. A bitter war of words between these polarising figures has ramped up in recent weeks, and the tension continues to mount.
The upcoming U.S. presidential election promises to be the biggest betting event in history, and all the leading betting sites are offering odds on the outcome. The most popular market focuses on which man will prevail, but you can also bet on the number of Electoral College votes they will secure, the Electoral College margin, the popular vote winner and the most states won.
Bookmakers are taking bets on the results in each state, along with House of Representatives results in each District, Senate election results and even Senate handicaps. There is also still time to bet on whether President Trump will open Area 51 to the public during his first term of office, or on whether he will pain the White House gold.
This guide covers the U.S. presidential election odds, the key U.S. election betting markets that you should check out, and what might cause the odds to change dramatically in the weeks ahead.
Who elects the president of the USA?
Any US citizen over the age of 18 can vote in the presidential election so long as they meet their state’s residency requirements and are registered to vote. Presidential elections are then decided by the electoral college, which consists of 538 electors. A candidate needs an absolute majority of at least 270 to win the election.
What are the requirements to be president?
A candidate must be a natural-born U.S. citizen in order to serve as president. One must also be at least 35 years old, and have been a resident in the U.S. for at least 14 years. The conditions are laid out in Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 of the Constitution.
How many times can a person be elected as president?
The Constitution decrees that a president can only serve two terms of office, for a total of eight years. President Donald Trump is bidding to win a second term of office on November 3. If successful, he will have to stand down at the end of the four-year term.
Does the popular vote matter?
The popular vote is an important measure of a candidate’s overall popularity among voters. However, it does not actually matter in terms of determining the outcome of the election. Hillary Clinton had almost 3 million more votes than Donald Trump in 2016 and won the popular vote, but Trump won the Electoral College and was sworn in as president.
Key election info
U.S. Election Odds
Joe Biden has been named the odds-on favorite to dethrone President Trump at the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Biden was a +3000 outsider to become the next president after falling behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg in the race for the Democratic nomination back in February.
However, a ringing endorsement from Jim Clyburn in South Carolina set in motion a chain reaction that ultimately propelled Biden to victory on Super Tuesday and allowed him to seize the nomination ahead of Sanders. He was immediately installed as the +120 underdog to win the election, with President Trump the -130 favorite.
The Covid-19 crisis then ravaged the United States, causing the economy to nosedive, and the president’s popularity ratings plummeted. Biden has now spent most of the year as the odds-on favorite to win the election. President Trump briefly moved neck-and-neck with him in the betting during the summer – when violent protests erupted across the country in the wake of the Black Lives Matter protests – but Biden has returned to the ascendancy following his performance in the first presidential debate.
The odds are likely to see-saw in the weeks ahead, but right now Biden is the clear favorite at -182 with 888 Sport. That is the best price you will find on the former vice president, as most bookmakers will only offer -200. Paddy Power and Betfair have a market leading +175 on President Trump, who is currently recovering from a bout of Covid-19.
Debates
Who Will Win the Presidential Election?
The best political betting sites have made Joe Biden the clear favorite to get the better of President Trump in the upcoming election. However, bookmakers are not pollsters, and the odds they provide reflect the amount of money going on each candidate as opposed to the voting intentions of the U.S. public.
Trump was initially a +50000 outsider to win the 2016 presidential election. He was priced at +2500 after gaining momentum in the race to become the Republican nominee, and then +200 when he actually became the presumptive nominee.
However, the odds on him winning the election continued to drift after he made several seemingly outrageous remarks. Polls showed Hillary Clinton comfortably ahead of Trump in the nation’s estimations, and she was widely expected to secure a landslide victory over a novelty candidate.
At one point on election night, Trump had odds of +550 to win, but he ultimately made a mockery of those odds and surged into the Oval Office, leaving millions of bettors stunned. He may be the underdog once again this time around, but President Trump will feel quietly confident of success after vanquishing his vaunted opponent last time around.
The major variable in 2020 is the pandemic. The president was in a strong position at the start of the year, as the economy was in growth, but the coronavirus has wrought havoc upon his best laid plans. The economy has now tanked, unemployment stands at 7.9%, a housing crisis is brewing and many Americans are upset with President Trump over his cavalier attitude towards the pandemic.
That has allowed Biden to seize the initiative. The Trump campaign has portrayed him as “Sleepy Joe” in high-profile commercials, but it has not had the same impact as “Crooked Hillary”. Biden presents himself as the man to restore dignity to the Oval Office, and his main strategy is to stay on message and wait for Trump to shoot himself in the foot. He is also raising a lot more money than his opponent right now, and ploughing it into vicious TV commercials of his own.
Biden has consistently held a substantial lead over Trump in the polls. Yet the election really could go either way. This is an era of stark polarisation, fuelled by social media entrenchment. There will be fights over ballot eligibility during the age of Covid, and we could witness a low turnout, so it is teetering on a knife-edge.
President Trump’s supporters are unyielding. Biden is not the most popular candidate, but many will vote for him simply to remove Trump. Neither group will change its mind in the next few weeks, so it will come down to a minority of undecided voters in key swing states. Biden is all but certain to win in New York, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maryland, Oregon. Trump should comfortably prevail in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming.
The key battlegrounds will be Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Right now Biden looks poised to win the election by prevailing in those states.
Polls show that he has the potential to seize Sun Belt suburbs that have reliably voted Republican for decades. He is performing better than Clinton did in small towns and midsize cities in the Frost Belt, which Trump surprisingly won four years ago. In bellwether counties across the U.S., Biden holds the initiative, suggesting that Trump could be in trouble, but there is still plenty of time for that to change.
Swing states
Exploiting Odds on the U.S. Presidential Election Odds
If you had been following the U.S. presidential election odds throughout 2020, you could have backed both Biden and Trump and guaranteed yourself a profit regardless of who goes on to secure victory. Just a few weeks ago, Biden was priced at +110 with some bookmakers to win the election. Trump was then out at +150 just a couple of weeks later.
Hedging Opportunities on the Presidential Election
Putting an equal size stake on both men at those odds would lock in a profit. This is known as hedging your bets. There might still be an opportunity to cover both potential outcomes and seize a profit regardless of the result.
The odds on President Trump have drifted significantly over the past week. You can now find highly attractive prices on him winning the election at political betting sites like Bet365 and 888 Sport.
Yet the momentum is likely to shift again in the coming weeks. It might be sensible to bet on Trump now and then hedge by betting on Biden further down the line. The best strategy is to check the U.S. election odds every single day and quickly pounce upon line moves.
What Might Cause the Presidential Election Odds to Move
A number of factors could cause the presidential election odds to shift in the weeks ahead. The next two presidential debates are scheduled for October 15 and October 22. There is some doubt about whether they will actually take place due to Trump’s Covid-19 diagnosis, but it is likely that the two men will square off again at some point.
A rousing performance from either man could cause the odds to swing dramatically. Biden is notorious for high-profile gaffes, while Trump often shoots from the hip, so an ill-chosen remark could affect the odds in the days and weeks ahead.
A breakthrough in the race to unearth a Covid-19 vaccine could provide Trump’s campaign with a major shot in the arm. A significant reduction in cases and deaths could generate a timely boost, as could an uptick in the country’s economic performance.
However, a rise in cases or an economic downturn could play into Biden’s hands. He will also be hopeful of yet another former member of Trump’s inner circle to turn on him. John Bolton and James Comey have emerged as some of his fiercest critics, while recent books from veteran journalist Bob Woodward and his nice, Mary Trump, have also damaged his reputation. You should pay close attention to breaking political news over the next few weeks, as it will undoubtedly lead to a shift in the betting odds, and you can profit by spotting patterns before the majority of political bettors.
What to Look Out for on Election Night
You are likely to see wild swings in the odds on election night. At 7.58pm on the night of the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was just -714 to win it, while Donald Trump was out at +475. Just three minutes later, he drifted out to +450.
By 9.20pm it became apparent that Trump had a genuine shot at winning, and the odds dropped to +120. That would have been a great time to bet on him. At 9.20pm, the odds on Trump had gone down to -159 and then he went down to just -2000 by 11.52pm. There are no guarantees that we will witness such dramatic shifts in 2020, but it shows how important it is to pay close attention to developments on election night.
Who Will Win the Popular Vote?
Joe Biden seems all but certain to win the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won it by a margin of 2.86 million votes in 2016, and polls suggest that Biden is a more popular candidate.
William Hill is offering just -588 on the Democrats winning the popular vote and +350 on the Republicans. However, winning the popular vote does not guarantee victory in the election, as the Electoral College system gives states with fewer voters a disproportionate influence on the overall result.
Yet this market does open up value from a betting perspective. If you think Biden will prevail comfortably, William Hill has +1400 on him winning more than 60% of the popular vote. You can also bet on who will finish third in the popular vote. Joanne Jorgensen is the -1000 favorite, but you can find +1600 on Kanye West.
Other parties
U.S. Election Betting Specials
There's no shortage of available markets for betting specials. Hip-hoppers, surgical enhancements, or winners per state - everything from quaint to noteworthy.
President Trump Betting Specials
Bettors can choose from a wealth of specials on President Trump over the next few weeks. They range from the sensible to the ridiculous. 888 Sport is offering +400 on Trump winning the popular vote, while Betfair has +225 on him losing the popular vote but still being re-elected.
That looks like a great option if you think Trump will secure a second term, as he is highly unlikely to win the popular vote, but could well prevail in the Electoral College.
William Hill has +138 on Trump winning in any U.S. state that he did not win in 2016, and +450 on him winning more than 40 states. If you think he will win all 50 states, you can take odds of +3300.
Paddy Power is the home of outrageous betting specials on Trump. These are some of the highlights: +200 on Trump to open up Area 51 before the election, +6600 on any Mexican airport to be named after him, +5000 on him outlawing the theory of evolution, +700 on him legalizing waterboarding, +8000 on Trump deporting Madonna, +10000 on Trump being minted on U.S. currency, +5000 on Trump surgically enhancing his penis, +50000 on him painting the White House gold and +10000 on France asking for the Statue of Liberty back.
Joe Biden Betting Specials
You will not find such whacky betting markets on Joe Biden, who is a far less controversial figure than his election rival. The betting specials on Biden are all pretty sensible, and they offer a great deal of value.
Ladbrokes has +110 on Biden winning the most states, which provides a lot more value than simply betting on him to win the election. It will be tough, but it is certainly possible if he continues to build momentum over the next few weeks.
If you think he will surge to an emphatic triumph, William Hill has +1400 in Biden winning more than 40% of the popular vote, as mentioned earlier in this US election betting guide.
Kanye West Betting Specials
Billionaire hip-hop star turned Christian revivalist Kanye West is running against President Trump and Joe Biden at the upcoming election. He wants to bring back prayer in schools, provide religious groups with greater government support and stop people from “fornicating” outside of marriage.
His party is called the Birthday Party. He kicked off his campaign by posting a picture of Vogue editor Anna Wintour and actress Kirsten Dunst. The picture confused Dunst. “What’s the message here?” she asked. “And why am I a part of it?”
William Hill has +50000 on Yeezy winning the election, +1600 on him finishing third ahead of Joanne Jorgensen and Howard Hawkins in the popular vote, and +5000 on him securing 5% or more of the popular vote.
Will the Democrats Retain Control of the House?
The Democrats currently hold a sizeable majority in the House of Representatives, with 232 seats to 197. They appear to be in a very strong position to retain control of the House this year. Just nine Democrats are retiring or running for another office, compared to 27 Republicans. Only one Democrat seat looks to be at risk of a GOP takeover, whereas up to nine current Republican seats could be flipped.
It is therefore easy to see why the Democrats are priced at just -588 to win the House of Representatives with William Hill, whereas the Republicans are out at +350. The Democrats only seized control of the House in the 2018 midterms, but they seem unlikely to relinquish their grip on it this year.
Can the Republicans Hold Onto the Senate?
That is the million-dollar question. The only way for the Democrats to truly transform the U.S. would be to flip the Senate, but they face an uphill battle. The Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, while the Democrats have 47, and they are set to yield Alabama to the Republicans.
That means the Democrats would need to gain four Republican-held seats in order to control the Senate. They should pick up Arizona, which would leave them needing three more, provided Biden wins (as his vice president, Kamala Harris, would cast the deciding vote).
There are six toss-up seats – North Carolina, Colorado, Maine, Iowa, Montana and Georgia – and the Democrats are mounting an offensive in North Carolina, Colorado and Maine. If they can win those three seats, and hold onto Michigan and Minnesota, they would prevail.
William Hill is offering -161 on the Republicans gaining under 50 seats, +600 on exactly 50 seats and +188 on over 50 seats, suggesting that they could lose out to their rivals.
Chances of a Clean Sweep
Controlling the White House, the House and the Senate is the best way for a political party to reshape the future of the U.S. President Trump is currently hamstrung by the Democrat-controlled House, while Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell ground President Obama down during his time in office.
The Democrats will be keen to turf President Trump out of the Oval Office and seize both chambers in an historical evening. William Hill has -133 on the Democrats winning control of the House, Senate and White House in 2020. It is also offering +400 on the Republicans winning all three.
Who will Prevail in Key Swing States?
888 Sport has identified 16 key swing states that will define the outcome of the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The tightest is Florida, which offers carries more Electoral College votes than any state apart from California and Texas. 888 Sport has -125 on the Democrats winning Florida, and -105 on the Republicans.
No Republican has ever won a presidential election without taking Ohio, so that is seen as the key battleground. President Trump, carried it with ease in 2016, performing well with white voters in almost every demographic. However, a Quinnipiac University poll released in late September had Biden ahead by 1% and a Fox News poll put Biden ahead by 5%. 888 Sport has -163 on the Republicans winning Ohio again, but odds of +120 on the Democrats winning the state look appealing.
Another close battle is expected to unfold in North Carolina, with the Democrats priced at -122 and the GOP at -110. Elsewhere, the Democrats are odds-on to win Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin out of the swing states, while the GOP is expected to win Georgia, Iowa and Texas. You can put together some interesting accumulators in the state betting markets, so head on over to a top political betting site like 888 Sport, Bet365 or William Hill and get involved in the action.
Weird betting specials
Previous Presidents
From the founding fathers to the Roosevelts to Obama and Trump - do you know all of the previous presidents of the USA?
Year | Election Winner | Runner-Up | Electoral Votes for Winner | Electoral Votes for Runner Up | Popular Vote | Pop Vote Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Donald Trump | Hillary Clinton | 304 | 227 | 62,979,636 | -2,864,974 |
2012 | Barack Obama | Mitt Romney | 332 | 206 | 62,615,406 | 3,473,402 |
2008 | Barack Obama | John McCain | 365 | 173 | 66,862,039 | 8,542,597 |
2004 | George W. Bush | John Kerry | 286 | 251 | 62,040,610 | 3,012,499 |
2000 | George W. Bush | Al Gore | 271 | 266 | 50,460,110 | -543,816 |
1996 | Bill Clinton | Bob Dole | 379 | 159 | 47,400,125 | 8,201,370 |
1992 | Bill Clinton | George H.W. Bush | 370 | 168 | 44,909,806 | 5,805,256 |
1988 | George H.W. Bush | Michael Dukakis | 426 | 111 | 48,886,597 | 7,077,121 |
1984 | Ronald Reagan | Walter Mondale | 525 | 13 | 54,455,472 | 16,878,120 |
1980 | Ronald Reagan | Jimmy Carter | 489 | 49 | 43,903,230 | 8,423,115 |
1976 | Jimmy Carter | Gerald Ford | 297 | 240 | 40,831,881 | 1,683,247 |
1972 | Richard Nixon | George McGovern | 520 | 17 | 47,168,710 | 17,995,488 |
1968 | Richard Nixon | Hubert Humphrey | 301 | 191 | 31,783,783 | 511,944 |
1964 | Lyndon B. Johnson | Barry Goldwater | 486 | 52 | 43,127,041 | 17,951,287 |
1960 | John F. Kennedy | Richard Nixon | 303 | 219 | 34,220,984 | 112,827 |
1956 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Adlai Stevenson | 457 | 73 | 35,579,180 | 9,551,152 |
1952 | Dwight D. Eisenhower | Adlai Stevenson | 442 | 89 | 34,075,529 | 6,700,439 |
1948 | Harry S. Truman | Thomas E. Dewey | 303 | 189 | 24,179,347 | 2,188,055 |
1944 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Thomas E. Dewey | 432 | 99 | 25,612,916 | 3,594,987 |
1940 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Wendell Willkie | 449 | 82 | 27,313,945 | 4,966,201 |
1936 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Alf Landon | 523 | 8 | 27,752,648 | 11,070,786 |
1932 | Franklin D. Roosevelt | Herbert Hoover | 472 | 59 | 22,821,277 | 7,060,023 |
1928 | Herbert Hoover | Al Smith | 444 | 87 | 21,427,123 | 6,411,659 |
1924 | Calvin Coolidge | John W. Davis | 382 | 136 | 15,723,789 | 7,337,547 |
1920 | Warren G. Harding | James M. Cox | 404 | 127 | 16,144,093 | 7,004,432 |
1916 | Woodrow Wilson | Charles Evans Hughes | 277 | 254 | 9,126,868 | 578,140 |
1912 | Woodrow Wilson | Theodore Roosevelt | 435 | 88 | 6,296,284 | 2,173,563 |
1908 | William H. Taft | William Jennings Bryan | 321 | 162 | 7,678,395 | 1,269,411 |
1904 | Theodore Roosevelt | Alton Brooks Parker | 336 | 140 | 7,630,457 | 2,546,577 |
1900 | William McKinley | William Jennings Bryan | 292 | 155 | 7,228,864 | 857,932 |
1896 | William McKinley | William Jennings Bryan | 271 | 176 | 7,112,138 | 603,966 |
1892 | Grover Cleveland | Benjamin Harrison | 277 | 145 | 5,553,898 | 363,079 |
1888 | Benjamin Harrison | Grover Cleveland | 233 | 168 | 5,443,892 | -90,596 |
1884 | Grover Cleveland | James G. Blaine | 219 | 182 | 4,874,621 | 25,685 |
1880 | James A. Garfield | Winfield Scott Hancock | 214 | 155 | 4,446,158 | 1,898 |
1876 | Rutherford B. Hayes | Samuel J. Tilden | 185 | 184 | 4,034,311 | -254,235 |
1872 | Ulysses S. Grant | Horace Greeley | 286 | 42 | 3,598,235 | 763,474 |
1868 | Ulysses S. Grant | Horatio Seymour | 214 | 80 | 3,013,650 | 304,906 |
1864 | Abraham Lincoln | George B. McClellan | 212 | 21 | 2,218,388 | 405,581 |
1860 | Abraham Lincoln | John C. Breckinridge | 180 | 72 | 1,865,908 | 485,706 |
1856 | James Buchanan | John C. Frémont | 174 | 114 | 1,836,072 | 493,727 |
1852 | Franklin Pierce | Winfield Scott | 254 | 42 | 1,607,510 | 220,568 |
1848 | Zachary Taylor | Lewis Cass | 163 | 127 | 1,361,393 | 137,933 |
1844 | James K. Polk | Henry Clay | 170 | 105 | 1,339,494 | 39,490 |
1840 | William Henry Harrison | Martin Van Buren | 234 | 60 | 1,275,390 | 146,536 |
1836 | Martin Van Buren | William Henry Harrison | 170 | 73 | 764,176 | 213,360 |
1832 | Andrew Jackson | Henry Clay | 219 | 49 | 701,780 | 217,575 |
1828 | Andrew Jackson | John Quincy Adams | 178 | 83 | 642,553 | 141,645 |
1824 | John Quincy Adams | Andrew Jackson | 84 | 99 | 113,122 | -38,149 |
1820 | James Monroe | - | 231 | 1 | 87,343 | 0 |
1816 | James Monroe | Rufus King | 183 | 34 | 76,592 | 41,852 |
1812 | James Madison | DeWitt Clinton | 128 | 89 | 140,431 | 7,650 |
1808 | James Madison | Charles Cotesworth Pinckney | 122 | 47 | 124,732 | 62,301 |
1804 | Thomas Jefferson | Charles Cotesworth Pinckney | 162 | 14 | 104,110 | 65,191 |
1800 | Thomas Jefferson | John Adams | 73 | 65 | 41,330 | 15,378 |
1796 | John Adams | Thomas Jefferson | 71 | 68 | 35,726 | 4,611 |
1792 | George Washington | John Adams | 132 | 77 | 13,332 | 13,332 |
1789 | George Washington | John Adams | 69 | 0 | 36,101 | 33,385 |