Value is the most important thing in betting with a combination of skills is enough to evaluate the market properly which in opposite all of this doesn't matter. We start with the basics of math:
Estimated probability = Ep
(Own) Estimated odds = Eo
Odds = O
Value (%) = V
Formula:
100 / Ep = Eo
(O / Eo - 1) * 100 = V
Example #1
We estimate the probability that team A wins to 45%. In the meantime, their current odds is (2.50) Estimated odds = 100 / 45 = (2.22) Value = (2.50 / 2.22 - 1) * 100 = 12.61% (This bet should be played since we have positive Ev)
Example #2
We estimate the probability that team A wins to 50%. In the meantime, their current odds is (1.85) Estimated odds = 100 / 50 = (2.00) Value = (1.85 / 2.00 - 1) * 100 = -7.50% (This bet should not be played since we have negative Ev)
We must have in mind that every single bookmaker earns their income by setting odds worse than the estimated probability. How many times do you find matches which are 50/50 with odds around 1.85 each rather than 2.00 which are real? This helps bookmakers that in the long run, they make money on all different outcomes. Those margins are the main reason why it is a difficult job to beat bookmakers.
To be profitable longterm, we need to have much higher odds available which help us having accounts on different bookmakers.
How to calculate estimated probability?
This is where this service is helping you. With more than 10 years of experience in the betting industry, you would get an advantage over bookmakers at the start as all bets here are published with brief analysis and research. There is tons of information needed to take care before estimate probability like player/team form, injury or suspensions, surface, weather, coaches, style, line-ups, game philosophy and so on. For more than 10 years in this business, I collect many good contacts and sources for my bets which show their longterm profitability.
